Confidence Matters: Uncertainty Quantification and Precision Assessment of Deep Learning-based CMR Biomarker Estimates Using Scan-rescan Data
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2026
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| _version_ | 1866917364709195776 |
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| author | Wickremasinghe, Dewmini Hasara Gibogwe, Michelle Bell, Andrew Puyol-Antón, Esther Nazir, Muhummad Sohaib Razavi, Reza Paun, Bruno Aljabar, Paul King, Andrew P. |
| author_facet | Wickremasinghe, Dewmini Hasara Gibogwe, Michelle Bell, Andrew Puyol-Antón, Esther Nazir, Muhummad Sohaib Razavi, Reza Paun, Bruno Aljabar, Paul King, Andrew P. |
| contents | The performance of deep learning (DL) methods for the analysis of cine cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) is typically assessed in terms of accuracy, overlooking precision. In this work, uncertainty estimation techniques, namely deep ensemble, test-time augmentation, and Monte Carlo dropout, are applied to a state-of-the-art DL pipeline for cardiac functional biomarker estimation, and new distribution-based metrics are proposed for the assessment of biomarker precision. The model achieved high accuracy (average Dice 87%) and point estimate precision on two external validation scan-rescan CMR datasets. However, distribution-based metrics showed that the overlap between scan/rescan confidence intervals was >50% in less than 45% of the cases. Statistical similarity tests between scan and rescan biomarkers also resulted in significant differences for over 65% of the cases. We conclude that, while point estimate metrics might suggest good performance, distributional analyses reveal lower precision, highlighting the need to use more representative metrics to assess scan-rescan agreement. |
| format | Preprint |
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arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2603_26789 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Confidence Matters: Uncertainty Quantification and Precision Assessment of Deep Learning-based CMR Biomarker Estimates Using Scan-rescan Data Wickremasinghe, Dewmini Hasara Gibogwe, Michelle Bell, Andrew Puyol-Antón, Esther Nazir, Muhummad Sohaib Razavi, Reza Paun, Bruno Aljabar, Paul King, Andrew P. Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition The performance of deep learning (DL) methods for the analysis of cine cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) is typically assessed in terms of accuracy, overlooking precision. In this work, uncertainty estimation techniques, namely deep ensemble, test-time augmentation, and Monte Carlo dropout, are applied to a state-of-the-art DL pipeline for cardiac functional biomarker estimation, and new distribution-based metrics are proposed for the assessment of biomarker precision. The model achieved high accuracy (average Dice 87%) and point estimate precision on two external validation scan-rescan CMR datasets. However, distribution-based metrics showed that the overlap between scan/rescan confidence intervals was >50% in less than 45% of the cases. Statistical similarity tests between scan and rescan biomarkers also resulted in significant differences for over 65% of the cases. We conclude that, while point estimate metrics might suggest good performance, distributional analyses reveal lower precision, highlighting the need to use more representative metrics to assess scan-rescan agreement. |
| title | Confidence Matters: Uncertainty Quantification and Precision Assessment of Deep Learning-based CMR Biomarker Estimates Using Scan-rescan Data |
| topic | Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.26789 |