Model Capability Dominates: Inference-Time Optimization Lessons from AIMO 3

Fuente: arXiv
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Autore principale: Nitarach, Natapong
Natura: Preprint
Pubblicazione: 2026
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_version_ 1866914478570864640
author Nitarach, Natapong
author_facet Nitarach, Natapong
contents Majority voting over multiple LLM attempts improves mathematical reasoning, but correlated errors limit the effective sample size. A natural fix is to assign different reasoning strategies to different voters. The approach, Diverse Prompt Mixer, is tested on the AIMO 3 competition: 3 models, 23+ experiments, 50 IMO-level problems, one H100 80 GB, 5-hour limit. Every prompt-level intervention fails. High-temperature sampling already decorrelates errors; weaker strategies reduce accuracy more than they reduce correlation. Across an 8-point capability gap at equal N=8 and every optimization tested, model capability dominates. The gap between the best majority-vote score (42/50) and pass@20 (~45.5) is selection loss, not prompt loss. A verifier-based selector could close it. Prompt engineering cannot.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2603_27844
institution arXiv
publishDate 2026
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Model Capability Dominates: Inference-Time Optimization Lessons from AIMO 3
Nitarach, Natapong
Computation and Language
68T07
I.2.6
Majority voting over multiple LLM attempts improves mathematical reasoning, but correlated errors limit the effective sample size. A natural fix is to assign different reasoning strategies to different voters. The approach, Diverse Prompt Mixer, is tested on the AIMO 3 competition: 3 models, 23+ experiments, 50 IMO-level problems, one H100 80 GB, 5-hour limit. Every prompt-level intervention fails. High-temperature sampling already decorrelates errors; weaker strategies reduce accuracy more than they reduce correlation. Across an 8-point capability gap at equal N=8 and every optimization tested, model capability dominates. The gap between the best majority-vote score (42/50) and pass@20 (~45.5) is selection loss, not prompt loss. A verifier-based selector could close it. Prompt engineering cannot.
title Model Capability Dominates: Inference-Time Optimization Lessons from AIMO 3
topic Computation and Language
68T07
I.2.6
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.27844