Statistical Models of Ember Wash and Their Impact on Wildfire Area Growth
Fuente:
arXiv
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2026
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1866911553449623552 |
|---|---|
| author | Quaife, Bryan Speer, Kevin |
| author_facet | Quaife, Bryan Speer, Kevin |
| contents | Wildfire spread is strongly influenced by the transport and ignition of embers. While long-range spotting driven by plume lofting has received significant attention, embers transported near the surface by turbulent winds can also influence fire propagation. We develop a stochastic model for near-surface ember transport, referred to as ember wash. The model represents ember motion as a sequence of short displacements analogous to saltation-like transport and incorporates a probabilistic ignition process that depends on ember survival during transport. This formulation leads to an exponential distribution of ember flight times. The model is implemented within a simplified fire spread model to examine burn patterns and growth dynamics. Simulations demonstrate that ember wash produces spread behavior that differs fundamentally from classical plume-driven spotting. These results suggest that ember wash provides a plausible mechanism for wildfire spread regimes that differ from those predicted by geometric or plume-driven spread models. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2603_28222 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Statistical Models of Ember Wash and Their Impact on Wildfire Area Growth Quaife, Bryan Speer, Kevin Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Wildfire spread is strongly influenced by the transport and ignition of embers. While long-range spotting driven by plume lofting has received significant attention, embers transported near the surface by turbulent winds can also influence fire propagation. We develop a stochastic model for near-surface ember transport, referred to as ember wash. The model represents ember motion as a sequence of short displacements analogous to saltation-like transport and incorporates a probabilistic ignition process that depends on ember survival during transport. This formulation leads to an exponential distribution of ember flight times. The model is implemented within a simplified fire spread model to examine burn patterns and growth dynamics. Simulations demonstrate that ember wash produces spread behavior that differs fundamentally from classical plume-driven spotting. These results suggest that ember wash provides a plausible mechanism for wildfire spread regimes that differ from those predicted by geometric or plume-driven spread models. |
| title | Statistical Models of Ember Wash and Their Impact on Wildfire Area Growth |
| topic | Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.28222 |