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| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2026
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.28400 |
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| _version_ | 1866918484090290176 |
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| author | Danti, Claudia Lambrechts, Michiel Diamond-Lowe, Hannah |
| author_facet | Danti, Claudia Lambrechts, Michiel Diamond-Lowe, Hannah |
| contents | Microlensing detections are uniquely well-suited to probing the population of planets outside the water iceline, down to planetary masses comparable to the Earth. Here, we perform 1D pebble-accretion population synthesis simulations to explore a sample of iceline planets around stars with masses and metallicities similar to the target population of the Galactic Bulge Time-domain microlensing survey of the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope. We find that the planet distribution in the microlensing sensitivity space deviates from a log-uniform distribution in mass and orbital radius. When planetary core growth comes to a halt as planets reach the pebble isolation mass, $M_{\mathrm{iso}}$, the combined effects of planetary migration and runaway gas accretion create an occurrence break. Our simulations highlight that, between 1 and 50 AU, the fraction of stars hosting isolation-mass planets (1 to 5 $M_{\mathrm{iso}}$) is lower by a factor 20 compared to less massive planets (0.2 to 1 $M_{\mathrm{iso}}$). If this break in planetary occurrence rates around the pebble isolation mass is detected in future lensing surveys, it would further validate the core accretion paradigm for giant planet formation. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2603_28400 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | A break in planet occurrence near the pebble isolation mass should be observable by the Roman microlensing survey Danti, Claudia Lambrechts, Michiel Diamond-Lowe, Hannah Earth and Planetary Astrophysics Microlensing detections are uniquely well-suited to probing the population of planets outside the water iceline, down to planetary masses comparable to the Earth. Here, we perform 1D pebble-accretion population synthesis simulations to explore a sample of iceline planets around stars with masses and metallicities similar to the target population of the Galactic Bulge Time-domain microlensing survey of the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope. We find that the planet distribution in the microlensing sensitivity space deviates from a log-uniform distribution in mass and orbital radius. When planetary core growth comes to a halt as planets reach the pebble isolation mass, $M_{\mathrm{iso}}$, the combined effects of planetary migration and runaway gas accretion create an occurrence break. Our simulations highlight that, between 1 and 50 AU, the fraction of stars hosting isolation-mass planets (1 to 5 $M_{\mathrm{iso}}$) is lower by a factor 20 compared to less massive planets (0.2 to 1 $M_{\mathrm{iso}}$). If this break in planetary occurrence rates around the pebble isolation mass is detected in future lensing surveys, it would further validate the core accretion paradigm for giant planet formation. |
| title | A break in planet occurrence near the pebble isolation mass should be observable by the Roman microlensing survey |
| topic | Earth and Planetary Astrophysics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.28400 |