Will a time-varying complex system be stable?
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arXiv
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| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2026
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| _version_ | 1866910085345705984 |
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| author | Ferraro, Francesco Grilletta, Christian Maritan, Amos Suweis, Samir Azaele, Sandro |
| author_facet | Ferraro, Francesco Grilletta, Christian Maritan, Amos Suweis, Samir Azaele, Sandro |
| contents | Randomly-assembled dynamical systems are theoretically predicted to be unstable upon crossing a critical threshold of complexity, as first shown by May. Yet, empirical complex systems exhibit remarkable stability, indicating the presence of additional mechanisms playing a stabilizing role. The relation between complexity and stability is typically assessed by assuming fixed interactions, whereas real systems often evolve in intrinsically time-dependent states. To understand how this affects stability, we linearize a general non-autonomous dynamics around a reference operating state and model the resulting parameters as stochastic processes, which represent the minimal extension of static random interactions to time-varying ones. We derive exact stability bounds that generalize complexity-stability theory to dynamically varying systems. Notably, we find that temporal variability allows systems to remain stable even when their instantaneous Jacobian would predict instability. We compare our results against a non-linear neural network model, where our theory applies exactly, and the generalized Lotka-Volterra equations, where we numerically find that time-varying interactions systematically postpone the onset of replica-symmetry breaking. Overall, our results indicate that temporal variability systematically improves stability, demonstrating a general mechanism by which complex systems can violate classical complexity-stability bounds. |
| format | Preprint |
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arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2603_28464 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Will a time-varying complex system be stable? Ferraro, Francesco Grilletta, Christian Maritan, Amos Suweis, Samir Azaele, Sandro Disordered Systems and Neural Networks Statistical Mechanics Populations and Evolution Randomly-assembled dynamical systems are theoretically predicted to be unstable upon crossing a critical threshold of complexity, as first shown by May. Yet, empirical complex systems exhibit remarkable stability, indicating the presence of additional mechanisms playing a stabilizing role. The relation between complexity and stability is typically assessed by assuming fixed interactions, whereas real systems often evolve in intrinsically time-dependent states. To understand how this affects stability, we linearize a general non-autonomous dynamics around a reference operating state and model the resulting parameters as stochastic processes, which represent the minimal extension of static random interactions to time-varying ones. We derive exact stability bounds that generalize complexity-stability theory to dynamically varying systems. Notably, we find that temporal variability allows systems to remain stable even when their instantaneous Jacobian would predict instability. We compare our results against a non-linear neural network model, where our theory applies exactly, and the generalized Lotka-Volterra equations, where we numerically find that time-varying interactions systematically postpone the onset of replica-symmetry breaking. Overall, our results indicate that temporal variability systematically improves stability, demonstrating a general mechanism by which complex systems can violate classical complexity-stability bounds. |
| title | Will a time-varying complex system be stable? |
| topic | Disordered Systems and Neural Networks Statistical Mechanics Populations and Evolution |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.28464 |