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Main Author: Lu, Chien-Ping
Format: Preprint
Published: 2026
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Online Access:https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.28507
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author Lu, Chien-Ping
author_facet Lu, Chien-Ping
contents This paper argues that continued AI scaling requires repeated efficiency doublings. Classical AI scaling laws remain useful because they make progress predictable despite diminishing returns, but the compute variable in those laws is best read as logical compute, not as a record of one fixed physical implementation. Practical burden therefore depends on the efficiency with which physical resources realize that compute. Under that interpretation, diminishing returns mean rising operational burden, not merely a flatter curve. Sustained progress then requires recurrent gains in hardware, algorithms, and systems that keep additional logical compute feasible at acceptable cost. The relevant analogy is Moore's Law, understood less as a theorem than as an organizing expectation of repeated efficiency improvement. AI does not yet have a single agreed cadence for such gains, but recent evidence suggests trends that are at least Moore-like and sometimes faster. The paper's claim is therefore simple: if AI scaling is to remain active, repeated efficiency doublings are not optional. They are required.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2603_28507
institution arXiv
publishDate 2026
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Continued AI Scaling Requires Repeated Efficiency Doublings
Lu, Chien-Ping
Machine Learning
Artificial Intelligence
This paper argues that continued AI scaling requires repeated efficiency doublings. Classical AI scaling laws remain useful because they make progress predictable despite diminishing returns, but the compute variable in those laws is best read as logical compute, not as a record of one fixed physical implementation. Practical burden therefore depends on the efficiency with which physical resources realize that compute. Under that interpretation, diminishing returns mean rising operational burden, not merely a flatter curve. Sustained progress then requires recurrent gains in hardware, algorithms, and systems that keep additional logical compute feasible at acceptable cost. The relevant analogy is Moore's Law, understood less as a theorem than as an organizing expectation of repeated efficiency improvement. AI does not yet have a single agreed cadence for such gains, but recent evidence suggests trends that are at least Moore-like and sometimes faster. The paper's claim is therefore simple: if AI scaling is to remain active, repeated efficiency doublings are not optional. They are required.
title Continued AI Scaling Requires Repeated Efficiency Doublings
topic Machine Learning
Artificial Intelligence
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.28507