Time is Not Compute: Scaling Laws for Wall-Clock Constrained Training on Consumer GPUs
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arXiv
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2026
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| _version_ | 1866917371541716992 |
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| author | Liu, Yi |
| author_facet | Liu, Yi |
| contents | Scaling laws relate model quality to compute budget (FLOPs), but practitioners face wall-clock time constraints, not compute budgets. We study optimal model sizing under fixed time budgets from 5 minutes to 24 hours on consumer GPUs (RTX 4090). Across 70+ runs spanning 50M--1031M parameters, we find: (1)~at each time budget a U-shaped curve emerges where too-small models overfit and too-large models undertrain; (2)~optimal model size follows $N^* \propto t^{0.60}$, growing \emph{faster} than Chinchilla's $N^* \propto C^{0.50}$, with $α= 0.60 \pm 0.07$ robustly exceeding compute-optimal across all sensitivity analyses; (3)~a \emph{dual U-shape mechanism}: short-budget U-curves arise from compute bottlenecks, while long-budget U-curves emerge from data bottlenecks (overfitting), with an intermediate regime where the U-curve temporarily disappears. These findings have immediate implications for researchers training on consumer hardware, where wall-clock time -- not FLOPs -- is the binding constraint. We release all code, logs, and 70+ experimental configurations. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2603_28823 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Time is Not Compute: Scaling Laws for Wall-Clock Constrained Training on Consumer GPUs Liu, Yi Performance Artificial Intelligence Scaling laws relate model quality to compute budget (FLOPs), but practitioners face wall-clock time constraints, not compute budgets. We study optimal model sizing under fixed time budgets from 5 minutes to 24 hours on consumer GPUs (RTX 4090). Across 70+ runs spanning 50M--1031M parameters, we find: (1)~at each time budget a U-shaped curve emerges where too-small models overfit and too-large models undertrain; (2)~optimal model size follows $N^* \propto t^{0.60}$, growing \emph{faster} than Chinchilla's $N^* \propto C^{0.50}$, with $α= 0.60 \pm 0.07$ robustly exceeding compute-optimal across all sensitivity analyses; (3)~a \emph{dual U-shape mechanism}: short-budget U-curves arise from compute bottlenecks, while long-budget U-curves emerge from data bottlenecks (overfitting), with an intermediate regime where the U-curve temporarily disappears. These findings have immediate implications for researchers training on consumer hardware, where wall-clock time -- not FLOPs -- is the binding constraint. We release all code, logs, and 70+ experimental configurations. |
| title | Time is Not Compute: Scaling Laws for Wall-Clock Constrained Training on Consumer GPUs |
| topic | Performance Artificial Intelligence |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.28823 |