Orthogonal Learner for Estimating Heterogeneous Long-Term Treatment Effects
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arXiv
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| Autores principales: | , , , |
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| Formato: | Preprint |
| Publicado: |
2026
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| _version_ | 1866917377556348928 |
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| author | Ma, Haorui Frauen, Dennis Melnychuk, Valentyn Feuerriegel, Stefan |
| author_facet | Ma, Haorui Frauen, Dennis Melnychuk, Valentyn Feuerriegel, Stefan |
| contents | Estimation of heterogeneous long-term treatment effects (HLTEs) is widely used for personalized decision-making in marketing, economics, and medicine, where short-term randomized experiments are often combined with long-term observational data. However, HLTE estimation is challenging due to limited overlap in treatment or in observing long-term outcomes for certain subpopulations, which can lead to unstable HLTE estimates with large finite-sample variance. To address this challenge, we introduce the LT-O-learners (Long-Term Orthogonal Learners), a set of novel orthogonal learners for HLTE estimation. The learners are designed for the canonical HLTE setting that combines a short-term randomized dataset $\mathcal{D}_1$ with a long-term historical dataset $\mathcal{D}_2$. The key idea of our LT-O-Learners is to retarget the learning objective by introducing custom overlap weights that downweight samples with low overlap in treatment or in long-term observation. We show that the retargeted loss is equivalent to the weighted oracle loss and satisfies Neyman-orthogonality, which means our learners are robust to errors in the nuisance estimation. We further provide a general error bound for the LT-O-Learners and give the conditions under which quasi-oracle rate can be achieved. Finally, our LT-O-learners are model-agnostic and can thus be instantiated with arbitrary machine learning models. We conduct empirical evaluations on synthetic and semi-synthetic benchmarks to confirm the theoretical properties of our LT-O-Learners, especially the robustness in low-overlap settings. To the best of our knowledge, ours are the first orthogonal learners for HLTE estimation that are robust to low overlap that is common in long-term outcomes. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2604_00915 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Orthogonal Learner for Estimating Heterogeneous Long-Term Treatment Effects Ma, Haorui Frauen, Dennis Melnychuk, Valentyn Feuerriegel, Stefan Machine Learning 68T07, 62D20 Estimation of heterogeneous long-term treatment effects (HLTEs) is widely used for personalized decision-making in marketing, economics, and medicine, where short-term randomized experiments are often combined with long-term observational data. However, HLTE estimation is challenging due to limited overlap in treatment or in observing long-term outcomes for certain subpopulations, which can lead to unstable HLTE estimates with large finite-sample variance. To address this challenge, we introduce the LT-O-learners (Long-Term Orthogonal Learners), a set of novel orthogonal learners for HLTE estimation. The learners are designed for the canonical HLTE setting that combines a short-term randomized dataset $\mathcal{D}_1$ with a long-term historical dataset $\mathcal{D}_2$. The key idea of our LT-O-Learners is to retarget the learning objective by introducing custom overlap weights that downweight samples with low overlap in treatment or in long-term observation. We show that the retargeted loss is equivalent to the weighted oracle loss and satisfies Neyman-orthogonality, which means our learners are robust to errors in the nuisance estimation. We further provide a general error bound for the LT-O-Learners and give the conditions under which quasi-oracle rate can be achieved. Finally, our LT-O-learners are model-agnostic and can thus be instantiated with arbitrary machine learning models. We conduct empirical evaluations on synthetic and semi-synthetic benchmarks to confirm the theoretical properties of our LT-O-Learners, especially the robustness in low-overlap settings. To the best of our knowledge, ours are the first orthogonal learners for HLTE estimation that are robust to low overlap that is common in long-term outcomes. |
| title | Orthogonal Learner for Estimating Heterogeneous Long-Term Treatment Effects |
| topic | Machine Learning 68T07, 62D20 |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.00915 |