Opponent-Adjusted Evaluation of NFL Pass Blocking and Pass Rushing Performance
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arXiv
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2026
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| author | Pipping-Gamón, Jonathan Gebauer, Maximilian Lee, Victoria Watts, Kenny Wyner, Abraham J. |
| author_facet | Pipping-Gamón, Jonathan Gebauer, Maximilian Lee, Victoria Watts, Kenny Wyner, Abraham J. |
| contents | Evaluating offensive linemen and pass rushers at the player level is difficult because observable outcomes are sparse, opponent-dependent, and strongly shaped by surrounding context. Using 2021 regular-season Hudl tracking data, we construct a blocker-rusher interaction dataset and estimate two ridge-regularized Bradley-Terry paired-comparison models: a binary win/loss model aligned with the 2.5-second pass block win-rate definition and a four-class severity model over loss, win, hit, and sack, with both models incorporating a double-team indicator. The final dataset contains 153,138 interactions across 33,283 pass plays in 266 games. On an ordered 80/20 holdout split (test n = 30,628), both models improve on global baselines and modestly outperform stronger matchup baselines under log-loss evaluation, corresponding to relative log-loss reductions of about 0.24% to 1.21%. Game-level bootstrap resampling indicates that these gains are most stable for the win model and for the severity model relative to the global baseline, while the severity-versus-matchup comparison remains directionally positive but less certain. External comparison to 2021 AP All-Pro selections provides additional face validation on the learned rankings, with the severity model showing the strongest alignment to expert recognition. Overall, ridge-regularized Bradley-Terry models provide an interpretable opponent-adjusted framework for evaluating NFL pass protection and pass rush at the interaction level. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2604_01491 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Opponent-Adjusted Evaluation of NFL Pass Blocking and Pass Rushing Performance Pipping-Gamón, Jonathan Gebauer, Maximilian Lee, Victoria Watts, Kenny Wyner, Abraham J. Applications Evaluating offensive linemen and pass rushers at the player level is difficult because observable outcomes are sparse, opponent-dependent, and strongly shaped by surrounding context. Using 2021 regular-season Hudl tracking data, we construct a blocker-rusher interaction dataset and estimate two ridge-regularized Bradley-Terry paired-comparison models: a binary win/loss model aligned with the 2.5-second pass block win-rate definition and a four-class severity model over loss, win, hit, and sack, with both models incorporating a double-team indicator. The final dataset contains 153,138 interactions across 33,283 pass plays in 266 games. On an ordered 80/20 holdout split (test n = 30,628), both models improve on global baselines and modestly outperform stronger matchup baselines under log-loss evaluation, corresponding to relative log-loss reductions of about 0.24% to 1.21%. Game-level bootstrap resampling indicates that these gains are most stable for the win model and for the severity model relative to the global baseline, while the severity-versus-matchup comparison remains directionally positive but less certain. External comparison to 2021 AP All-Pro selections provides additional face validation on the learned rankings, with the severity model showing the strongest alignment to expert recognition. Overall, ridge-regularized Bradley-Terry models provide an interpretable opponent-adjusted framework for evaluating NFL pass protection and pass rush at the interaction level. |
| title | Opponent-Adjusted Evaluation of NFL Pass Blocking and Pass Rushing Performance |
| topic | Applications |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.01491 |