Sensitivity analysis for stopping criteria with application to organ transplantations
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arXiv
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| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2026
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| _version_ | 1866914440567324672 |
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| author | Ren, Xingyu Fu, Michael C. Marcus, Steven I. |
| author_facet | Ren, Xingyu Fu, Michael C. Marcus, Steven I. |
| contents | We consider a stopping problem and its application to the decision-making process regarding the optimal timing of organ transplantation for individual patients. At each decision period, the patient state is inspected and a decision is made whether to transplant. If the organ is transplanted, the process terminates; otherwise, the process continues until a transplant happens or the patient dies. Under suitable conditions, we show that there exists a control limit optimal policy. We propose a smoothed perturbation analysis (SPA) estimator for the gradient of the total expected discounted reward with respect to the control limit. Moreover, we show that the SPA estimator is asymptotically unbiased. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2604_02227 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Sensitivity analysis for stopping criteria with application to organ transplantations Ren, Xingyu Fu, Michael C. Marcus, Steven I. Systems and Control Optimization and Control Methodology We consider a stopping problem and its application to the decision-making process regarding the optimal timing of organ transplantation for individual patients. At each decision period, the patient state is inspected and a decision is made whether to transplant. If the organ is transplanted, the process terminates; otherwise, the process continues until a transplant happens or the patient dies. Under suitable conditions, we show that there exists a control limit optimal policy. We propose a smoothed perturbation analysis (SPA) estimator for the gradient of the total expected discounted reward with respect to the control limit. Moreover, we show that the SPA estimator is asymptotically unbiased. |
| title | Sensitivity analysis for stopping criteria with application to organ transplantations |
| topic | Systems and Control Optimization and Control Methodology |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.02227 |