Causal-Audit: A Framework for Risk Assessment of Assumption Violations in Time-Series Causal Discovery
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arXiv
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| Auteurs principaux: | , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Publié: |
2026
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| _version_ | 1866911564325453824 |
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| author | Ruiz, Marco Arana-Catania, Miguel Ardila, David R. Ventura, Rodrigo |
| author_facet | Ruiz, Marco Arana-Catania, Miguel Ardila, David R. Ventura, Rodrigo |
| contents | Time-series causal discovery methods rely on assumptions such as stationarity, regular sampling, and bounded temporal dependence. When these assumptions are violated, structure learning can produce confident but misleading causal graphs without warning. We introduce Causal-Audit, a framework that formalizes assumption validation as calibrated risk assessment. The framework computes effect-size diagnostics across five assumption families (stationarity, irregularity, persistence, nonlinearity, and confounding proxies), aggregates them into four calibrated risk scores with uncertainty intervals, and applies an abstention-aware decision policy that recommends methods (e.g., PCMCI+, VAR-based Granger causality) only when evidence supports reliable inference. The semi-automatic diagnostic stage can also be used independently for structured assumption auditing in individual studies. Evaluation on a synthetic atlas of 500 data-generating processes (DGPs) spanning 10 violation families demonstrates well-calibrated risk scores (AUROC > 0.95), a 62% false positive reduction among recommended datasets, and 78% abstention on severe-violation cases. On 21 external evaluations from TimeGraph (18 categories) and CausalTime (3 domains), recommend-or-abstain decisions are consistent with benchmark specifications in all cases. An open-source implementation of our framework is available. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2604_02488 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Causal-Audit: A Framework for Risk Assessment of Assumption Violations in Time-Series Causal Discovery Ruiz, Marco Arana-Catania, Miguel Ardila, David R. Ventura, Rodrigo Machine Learning 62D20, 62M10, 62F03 Time-series causal discovery methods rely on assumptions such as stationarity, regular sampling, and bounded temporal dependence. When these assumptions are violated, structure learning can produce confident but misleading causal graphs without warning. We introduce Causal-Audit, a framework that formalizes assumption validation as calibrated risk assessment. The framework computes effect-size diagnostics across five assumption families (stationarity, irregularity, persistence, nonlinearity, and confounding proxies), aggregates them into four calibrated risk scores with uncertainty intervals, and applies an abstention-aware decision policy that recommends methods (e.g., PCMCI+, VAR-based Granger causality) only when evidence supports reliable inference. The semi-automatic diagnostic stage can also be used independently for structured assumption auditing in individual studies. Evaluation on a synthetic atlas of 500 data-generating processes (DGPs) spanning 10 violation families demonstrates well-calibrated risk scores (AUROC > 0.95), a 62% false positive reduction among recommended datasets, and 78% abstention on severe-violation cases. On 21 external evaluations from TimeGraph (18 categories) and CausalTime (3 domains), recommend-or-abstain decisions are consistent with benchmark specifications in all cases. An open-source implementation of our framework is available. |
| title | Causal-Audit: A Framework for Risk Assessment of Assumption Violations in Time-Series Causal Discovery |
| topic | Machine Learning 62D20, 62M10, 62F03 |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.02488 |