Carbon cost pass-through rate in power system: evidence from Italy under the EU ETS
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arXiv
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| Autori principali: | , |
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| Natura: | Preprint |
| Pubblicazione: |
2026
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| _version_ | 1866918426694385664 |
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| author | Duttilo, Pierdomenico Lisi, Francesco |
| author_facet | Duttilo, Pierdomenico Lisi, Francesco |
| contents | This paper investigates the impact of carbon pricing under the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) on the Italian electricity market, focusing on the carbon cost pass-through rate (CPTR) across market zones during Phases 3 and 4 (2016-2024). Using daily data, the study applies an econometric framework based on a linear regression model with autoregressive dynamics to estimate the extent to which carbon costs are reflected in wholesale electricity prices. It further incorporates robustness checks and quantile regression to assess how the CPTR varies across different fuel spread levels. The results show that carbon costs are positively and significantly transmitted to electricity prices, confirming the relevance of carbon pricing as a key market driver. However, pass-through is incomplete, with CPTR values consistently below 100%. At the national level, the CPTR remains relatively stable at around 30% across the two phases. Substantial heterogeneity emerges across market zones: pass-through increases in the North, Centre-North, and Sardinia during Phase 4, while it declines in the Centre-South and Sicily, reflecting differences in generation mix, carbon intensity, and market conditions. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of market zones factors in shaping the effectiveness of carbon pricing in electricity markets. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2604_03076 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Carbon cost pass-through rate in power system: evidence from Italy under the EU ETS Duttilo, Pierdomenico Lisi, Francesco Applications This paper investigates the impact of carbon pricing under the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) on the Italian electricity market, focusing on the carbon cost pass-through rate (CPTR) across market zones during Phases 3 and 4 (2016-2024). Using daily data, the study applies an econometric framework based on a linear regression model with autoregressive dynamics to estimate the extent to which carbon costs are reflected in wholesale electricity prices. It further incorporates robustness checks and quantile regression to assess how the CPTR varies across different fuel spread levels. The results show that carbon costs are positively and significantly transmitted to electricity prices, confirming the relevance of carbon pricing as a key market driver. However, pass-through is incomplete, with CPTR values consistently below 100%. At the national level, the CPTR remains relatively stable at around 30% across the two phases. Substantial heterogeneity emerges across market zones: pass-through increases in the North, Centre-North, and Sardinia during Phase 4, while it declines in the Centre-South and Sicily, reflecting differences in generation mix, carbon intensity, and market conditions. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of market zones factors in shaping the effectiveness of carbon pricing in electricity markets. |
| title | Carbon cost pass-through rate in power system: evidence from Italy under the EU ETS |
| topic | Applications |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.03076 |