Statistical Model Checking of the Island Model: An Established Economic Agent-Based Model of Endogenous Growth
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arXiv
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| Auteurs principaux: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2026
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| _version_ | 1866914448416964608 |
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| author | Blando, Stefano Fagiolo, Giorgio Giachini, Daniele Vandin, Andrea Ivanaj, Ernest |
| author_facet | Blando, Stefano Fagiolo, Giorgio Giachini, Daniele Vandin, Andrea Ivanaj, Ernest |
| contents | Agent-based models (ABMs) are increasingly used to study complex economic phenomena such as endogenous growth, but their analysis typically relies on ad-hoc Monte Carlo exercises without formal statistical guarantees. We show how statistical model checking (SMC), and in particular Multi-VeStA, can automate and enrich the analysis of a seminal ABM: the Island Model of Fagiolo and Dosi, which captures the exploration-exploitation trade-off in technological search. We reproduce key stylized facts from the original model with formal confidence intervals, confirm the optimality of moderate exploration rates, and perform a counterfactual sensitivity analysis across returns to scale, skill transfer, and knowledge locality. Using MultiVeStA's built-in Welch's t-test, 6 out of 7 pairwise parameter comparisons yield statistically different growth trajectories, while the exception reveals a saturation effect in knowledge locality. Our results demonstrate that SMC offers a principled, reproducible methodology for the quantitative analysis of agent-based economic models.
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| format | Preprint |
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arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2604_04543 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Statistical Model Checking of the Island Model: An Established Economic Agent-Based Model of Endogenous Growth Blando, Stefano Fagiolo, Giorgio Giachini, Daniele Vandin, Andrea Ivanaj, Ernest Multiagent Systems Logic in Computer Science F.3.1 [Specifying and Verifying and Reasoning about Programs]; I.2.11 [Distributed Artificial Intelligence]: Multiagent systems Agent-based models (ABMs) are increasingly used to study complex economic phenomena such as endogenous growth, but their analysis typically relies on ad-hoc Monte Carlo exercises without formal statistical guarantees. We show how statistical model checking (SMC), and in particular Multi-VeStA, can automate and enrich the analysis of a seminal ABM: the Island Model of Fagiolo and Dosi, which captures the exploration-exploitation trade-off in technological search. We reproduce key stylized facts from the original model with formal confidence intervals, confirm the optimality of moderate exploration rates, and perform a counterfactual sensitivity analysis across returns to scale, skill transfer, and knowledge locality. Using MultiVeStA's built-in Welch's t-test, 6 out of 7 pairwise parameter comparisons yield statistically different growth trajectories, while the exception reveals a saturation effect in knowledge locality. Our results demonstrate that SMC offers a principled, reproducible methodology for the quantitative analysis of agent-based economic models. |
| title | Statistical Model Checking of the Island Model: An Established Economic Agent-Based Model of Endogenous Growth |
| topic | Multiagent Systems Logic in Computer Science F.3.1 [Specifying and Verifying and Reasoning about Programs]; I.2.11 [Distributed Artificial Intelligence]: Multiagent systems |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.04543 |