Identification and Inference in Nonlinear Dynamic Network Models
Fuente:
arXiv
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| Natura: | Preprint |
| Pubblicazione: |
2026
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| _version_ | 1866911571152732160 |
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| author | Vallarino, Diego |
| author_facet | Vallarino, Diego |
| contents | We study identification and inference in nonlinear dynamic systems defined on unknown interaction networks. The system evolves through an unobserved dependence matrix governing cross-sectional shock propagation via a nonlinear operator. We show that the network structure is not generically identified, and that identification requires sufficient spectral heterogeneity. In particular, identification arises when the network induces non-exchangeable covariance patterns through heterogeneous amplification of eigenmodes. When the spectrum is concentrated, dependence becomes observationally equivalent to common shocks or scalar heterogeneity, leading to non-identification. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for identification, characterize observational equivalence classes, and propose a semiparametric estimator with asymptotic theory. We also develop tests for network dependence whose power depends on spectral properties of the interaction matrix. The results apply to a broad class of economic models, including production networks, contagion models, and dynamic interaction systems. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2604_04961 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Identification and Inference in Nonlinear Dynamic Network Models Vallarino, Diego Machine Learning Econometrics Statistics Theory We study identification and inference in nonlinear dynamic systems defined on unknown interaction networks. The system evolves through an unobserved dependence matrix governing cross-sectional shock propagation via a nonlinear operator. We show that the network structure is not generically identified, and that identification requires sufficient spectral heterogeneity. In particular, identification arises when the network induces non-exchangeable covariance patterns through heterogeneous amplification of eigenmodes. When the spectrum is concentrated, dependence becomes observationally equivalent to common shocks or scalar heterogeneity, leading to non-identification. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for identification, characterize observational equivalence classes, and propose a semiparametric estimator with asymptotic theory. We also develop tests for network dependence whose power depends on spectral properties of the interaction matrix. The results apply to a broad class of economic models, including production networks, contagion models, and dynamic interaction systems. |
| title | Identification and Inference in Nonlinear Dynamic Network Models |
| topic | Machine Learning Econometrics Statistics Theory |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.04961 |