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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Zhang, Fangyuan
Format: Preprint
Published: 2026
Subjects:
Online Access:https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.08049
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author Zhang, Fangyuan
author_facet Zhang, Fangyuan
contents In this work, we analyze 126 publicly available IAM climate scenarios modeled by six leading teams in climate science. We define a simple numerical metric that measures the decarbonization speed implied by each IAM scenario. With this metric, the narrative based, high-dimensional time series scenario datasets can be ranked and compared in a transparent way. We find that the ranking of IAM scenarios according to the decarbonization speed is consistent with their representative concentration pathway assumptions, showing that the decarbonization metric is a useful summary of a scenario's mitigation policy. We further construct an empirical distribution and a fitted parametric distribution of the decarbonization speed estimates. Key statistics such as mean, median and their confidence intervals by the bootstrap resample technique are also reported.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2604_08049
institution arXiv
publishDate 2026
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Quantifying Decarbonization Speed Across Climate Scenarios
Zhang, Fangyuan
Applications
In this work, we analyze 126 publicly available IAM climate scenarios modeled by six leading teams in climate science. We define a simple numerical metric that measures the decarbonization speed implied by each IAM scenario. With this metric, the narrative based, high-dimensional time series scenario datasets can be ranked and compared in a transparent way. We find that the ranking of IAM scenarios according to the decarbonization speed is consistent with their representative concentration pathway assumptions, showing that the decarbonization metric is a useful summary of a scenario's mitigation policy. We further construct an empirical distribution and a fitted parametric distribution of the decarbonization speed estimates. Key statistics such as mean, median and their confidence intervals by the bootstrap resample technique are also reported.
title Quantifying Decarbonization Speed Across Climate Scenarios
topic Applications
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.08049