Identification of Latent Group Effects under Conditional Calibration
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arXiv
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| Formato: | Preprint |
| Publicado: |
2026
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| _version_ | 1866913020896083968 |
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| author | Kurbucz, Marcell T. |
| author_facet | Kurbucz, Marcell T. |
| contents | We study identification of a structural group effect when the group indicator $G\in\{0,1\}$ is unobserved but the analyst observes a calibrated probability score $p\in[0,1]$ satisfying $\mathbb{E}[G|p,X]=p$. Under a constant-coefficient structural mean model, the latent-group coefficient $τ$ is point-identified from the joint law of observables $(Y,X,p)$ by a simple ratio of weighted moments: the covariance of the signed score $2p-1$ with the covariate-partialled outcome, divided by twice the residual variance of the score after conditioning on covariates. Identification fails if and only if the score is a deterministic function of $X$; we establish this by constructing an explicit continuum of observationally equivalent models indexed by arbitrary values of $τ$. The identified coefficient differs from the marginal latent mean gap by a compositional term that is unidentified without further assumptions; we give a necessary and sufficient condition for the two to coincide. The oracle estimator is $\sqrt{n}$-consistent and asymptotically normal with a closed-form sandwich variance. Under calibration error bounded uniformly by $δ$, the bias is bounded by $|τ|\,\mathbb{E}[|2p-1|]\,δ\,(2V^*)^{-1}$, a bound that is sharp over all calibration error functions of that magnitude. Hard-threshold classification at $p=1/2$ attenuates the estimated gap by a factor strictly less than one. Monte Carlo experiments confirm the asymptotic theory, trace the divergence of RMSE as $V^*\to 0$, illustrate the attenuation bias of hard-threshold classification, and verify identification of the variance-weighted estimand under heterogeneous effects. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2604_08798 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Identification of Latent Group Effects under Conditional Calibration Kurbucz, Marcell T. Methodology Econometrics Computation 62G05, 62G20, 62F12 G.3 We study identification of a structural group effect when the group indicator $G\in\{0,1\}$ is unobserved but the analyst observes a calibrated probability score $p\in[0,1]$ satisfying $\mathbb{E}[G|p,X]=p$. Under a constant-coefficient structural mean model, the latent-group coefficient $τ$ is point-identified from the joint law of observables $(Y,X,p)$ by a simple ratio of weighted moments: the covariance of the signed score $2p-1$ with the covariate-partialled outcome, divided by twice the residual variance of the score after conditioning on covariates. Identification fails if and only if the score is a deterministic function of $X$; we establish this by constructing an explicit continuum of observationally equivalent models indexed by arbitrary values of $τ$. The identified coefficient differs from the marginal latent mean gap by a compositional term that is unidentified without further assumptions; we give a necessary and sufficient condition for the two to coincide. The oracle estimator is $\sqrt{n}$-consistent and asymptotically normal with a closed-form sandwich variance. Under calibration error bounded uniformly by $δ$, the bias is bounded by $|τ|\,\mathbb{E}[|2p-1|]\,δ\,(2V^*)^{-1}$, a bound that is sharp over all calibration error functions of that magnitude. Hard-threshold classification at $p=1/2$ attenuates the estimated gap by a factor strictly less than one. Monte Carlo experiments confirm the asymptotic theory, trace the divergence of RMSE as $V^*\to 0$, illustrate the attenuation bias of hard-threshold classification, and verify identification of the variance-weighted estimand under heterogeneous effects. |
| title | Identification of Latent Group Effects under Conditional Calibration |
| topic | Methodology Econometrics Computation 62G05, 62G20, 62F12 G.3 |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.08798 |