Nobody Puts Bonferroni in a Corner
Fuente:
arXiv
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Preprint |
| Veröffentlicht: |
2026
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | |
| Tags: |
Tag hinzufügen
Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!
|
| _version_ | 1866913021259939840 |
|---|---|
| author | Schultzberg, Mårten |
| author_facet | Schultzberg, Mårten |
| contents | We argue that Bonferroni correction is a better choice for online experimentation than it is commonly given credit for. The case rests on four considerations. First, it is the simplest broadly implementable FWER-controlling method that produces unconditional simultaneous confidence intervals for every metric. Second, in a well-specified decision framework, guardrail and quality metrics use intersection-union logic and cannot inflate the false positive rate, so the Bonferroni denominator is the number of success metrics only, not the total metric count. Third, it is uniquely tractable for pre-experiment sample size calculations. Fourth, we contextualise the power cost empirically. Drawing on a simulation study and an empirical analysis of 1,296 experiments run on Spotify's experimentation platform, Confidence, we show that the power loss relative to more sophisticated FWER methods depends on both how the correction family is specified and how many metrics are truly non-null. When guardrail metrics are incorrectly included in the family, Holm and Hommel are nearly indistinguishable from Bonferroni. When the family is correctly restricted to success metrics only, they gain roughly 4--5 percentage points in ship rate (the fraction of experiments where the treatment is deployed). When few metrics are truly non-null, the gap narrows to near zero regardless of method. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2604_09256 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Nobody Puts Bonferroni in a Corner Schultzberg, Mårten Methodology We argue that Bonferroni correction is a better choice for online experimentation than it is commonly given credit for. The case rests on four considerations. First, it is the simplest broadly implementable FWER-controlling method that produces unconditional simultaneous confidence intervals for every metric. Second, in a well-specified decision framework, guardrail and quality metrics use intersection-union logic and cannot inflate the false positive rate, so the Bonferroni denominator is the number of success metrics only, not the total metric count. Third, it is uniquely tractable for pre-experiment sample size calculations. Fourth, we contextualise the power cost empirically. Drawing on a simulation study and an empirical analysis of 1,296 experiments run on Spotify's experimentation platform, Confidence, we show that the power loss relative to more sophisticated FWER methods depends on both how the correction family is specified and how many metrics are truly non-null. When guardrail metrics are incorrectly included in the family, Holm and Hommel are nearly indistinguishable from Bonferroni. When the family is correctly restricted to success metrics only, they gain roughly 4--5 percentage points in ship rate (the fraction of experiments where the treatment is deployed). When few metrics are truly non-null, the gap narrows to near zero regardless of method. |
| title | Nobody Puts Bonferroni in a Corner |
| topic | Methodology |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.09256 |