Optimal Annuitization Time under a Mortality Shock
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arXiv
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2026
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| _version_ | 1866910119361511424 |
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| author | Buttarazzi, Matteo |
| author_facet | Buttarazzi, Matteo |
| contents | In this paper, we derive explicit closed-form solutions for the value function and the associated optimal stopping boundaries in an optimal annuitization problem under a mortality shock. We consider an individual whose retirement wealth is invested in a financial fund following the dynamics of a geometric Brownian motion and has the option at any time to irreversibly convert their wealth into a life annuity. The individual faces a sudden, permanent health deterioration occurring at a random, exponentially distributed time, and the annuitization decision is modelled as an optimal stopping problem across two health states. Our analytical expressions characterise both the value function and the optimal timing of annuitization. The results provide clear economic intuition: the optimal strategy is governed by the critical interplay between the relative attractiveness of the annuity (money's worth), the financial returns from the investment fund, and bequest motives across different health states. A numerical analysis compares the optimal annuitization strategy of an individual facing a health shock against a benchmark case with constant mortality, highlighting how the likelihood and severity of a health shock significantly alter optimal annuitization behaviour. |
| format | Preprint |
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arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2604_09342 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Optimal Annuitization Time under a Mortality Shock Buttarazzi, Matteo Mathematical Finance In this paper, we derive explicit closed-form solutions for the value function and the associated optimal stopping boundaries in an optimal annuitization problem under a mortality shock. We consider an individual whose retirement wealth is invested in a financial fund following the dynamics of a geometric Brownian motion and has the option at any time to irreversibly convert their wealth into a life annuity. The individual faces a sudden, permanent health deterioration occurring at a random, exponentially distributed time, and the annuitization decision is modelled as an optimal stopping problem across two health states. Our analytical expressions characterise both the value function and the optimal timing of annuitization. The results provide clear economic intuition: the optimal strategy is governed by the critical interplay between the relative attractiveness of the annuity (money's worth), the financial returns from the investment fund, and bequest motives across different health states. A numerical analysis compares the optimal annuitization strategy of an individual facing a health shock against a benchmark case with constant mortality, highlighting how the likelihood and severity of a health shock significantly alter optimal annuitization behaviour. |
| title | Optimal Annuitization Time under a Mortality Shock |
| topic | Mathematical Finance |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.09342 |