Combining the Mass--Radius Posteriors of J0030+0451 Allowing for Unknown Model Systematics
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2026
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| author | O'Connor, Ryan Huang, Chun Chen, Alexander Y. |
| author_facet | O'Connor, Ryan Huang, Chun Chen, Alexander Y. |
| contents | The NASA Neutron star Interior Composition Explorer (\emph{NICER}) mission measures the X-ray pulse profiles of select millisecond pulsars and uses sophisticated pulse profile modeling (PPM) techniques to constrain their masses ($M$) and radii ($R$), in order to probe the state of matter in their interiors. One of the most studied pulsars, PSR J0030+0451, has been analyzed by multiple groups using different choices of hotspot models. The different choices of hotspot prescriptions to fit the same observational data led to different $M$--$R$ posteriors that do not completely agree with one another, resulting in a practical bottleneck for dense-matter equation-of-state (EoS) inference. In this paper, we adapt a robust Bayesian combination framework to the published $M$--$R$ posteriors of PSR J0030+0451 while allowing for unknown systematic uncertainties that might have led to the apparently divergent results. Using this technique, we combine eight existing $M$--$R$ posteriors into a single conservative and reproducible posterior that incorporates unknown model systematics across the currently available analyses and is suitable for direct use in EoS studies. The resulting constraint is $M = 1.46^{+0.09}_{-0.08}\,M_\odot$, $R = 12.69^{+0.64}_{-0.55}\,\mathrm{km}$, and compactness $C = 0.172^{+0.006}_{-0.007}$ (68\% credible interval). Incorporating this combined J0030+0451 constraint in an EoS-agnostic joint analysis with PSR~J0437--4715 and GW170817 yields $R_{1.4} = 11.98^{+0.58}_{-0.68}\,\mathrm{km}$ and $Λ_{1.4} = 320^{+216}_{-138}$. Our results provide a combined $M$--$R$ constraint for J0030+0451 and a practical framework for incorporating cross-model uncertainty into neutron star EoS inference pipelines. |
| format | Preprint |
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arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2604_11621 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Combining the Mass--Radius Posteriors of J0030+0451 Allowing for Unknown Model Systematics O'Connor, Ryan Huang, Chun Chen, Alexander Y. High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena Solar and Stellar Astrophysics Nuclear Theory The NASA Neutron star Interior Composition Explorer (\emph{NICER}) mission measures the X-ray pulse profiles of select millisecond pulsars and uses sophisticated pulse profile modeling (PPM) techniques to constrain their masses ($M$) and radii ($R$), in order to probe the state of matter in their interiors. One of the most studied pulsars, PSR J0030+0451, has been analyzed by multiple groups using different choices of hotspot models. The different choices of hotspot prescriptions to fit the same observational data led to different $M$--$R$ posteriors that do not completely agree with one another, resulting in a practical bottleneck for dense-matter equation-of-state (EoS) inference. In this paper, we adapt a robust Bayesian combination framework to the published $M$--$R$ posteriors of PSR J0030+0451 while allowing for unknown systematic uncertainties that might have led to the apparently divergent results. Using this technique, we combine eight existing $M$--$R$ posteriors into a single conservative and reproducible posterior that incorporates unknown model systematics across the currently available analyses and is suitable for direct use in EoS studies. The resulting constraint is $M = 1.46^{+0.09}_{-0.08}\,M_\odot$, $R = 12.69^{+0.64}_{-0.55}\,\mathrm{km}$, and compactness $C = 0.172^{+0.006}_{-0.007}$ (68\% credible interval). Incorporating this combined J0030+0451 constraint in an EoS-agnostic joint analysis with PSR~J0437--4715 and GW170817 yields $R_{1.4} = 11.98^{+0.58}_{-0.68}\,\mathrm{km}$ and $Λ_{1.4} = 320^{+216}_{-138}$. Our results provide a combined $M$--$R$ constraint for J0030+0451 and a practical framework for incorporating cross-model uncertainty into neutron star EoS inference pipelines. |
| title | Combining the Mass--Radius Posteriors of J0030+0451 Allowing for Unknown Model Systematics |
| topic | High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena Solar and Stellar Astrophysics Nuclear Theory |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.11621 |