Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2026
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.12368 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1866917406341857280 |
|---|---|
| author | Gondauri, Davit |
| author_facet | Gondauri, Davit |
| contents | In the face of socioeconomic challenges, this paper develops and empirically demonstrates the Gondauri Index (GI) as a reproducible diagnostics-first composite framework for benchmarking macro-financial resilience across heterogeneous economies on a unified 0-100 scale. The GI addresses a key limitation of conventional surveillance dashboards: resilience is multi-dimensional and only partially substitutable, so strength in one area cannot sustainably offset fragility in another. The index integrates three interpretable pillars: Inequality Resilience Score (IRS), Liquidity and Systemic Resilience (LNSR), and Inflation Forecast Coherence (IFC). Cross-country comparability is ensured through robust percentile normalization (p5-p95), a consistent annual country-year design, and explicit missing-data handling via component-level weight renormalization. Empirically, the paper provides a 2024 benchmark snapshot and dynamic evidence for 2005-2024 using 5-year rolling diagnostics and Delta log(GI) contribution decomposition, allowing transparent attribution of resilience changes to pillar-level drivers. A forward-looking extension constructs 2026-2030 scenario pathways and introduces a binding-pillar diagnostic that identifies the dominant constraint on resilience across horizons. Overall, the GI offers a scalable tool for comparative resilience assessment, early-warning diagnostics, and evidence-based policy sequencing. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2604_12368 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | A Diagnostics-First Composite Index for Macro-Financial Resilience to Socioeconomic Challenges: The Gondauri Index with Benchmarking and Scenario Evidence Gondauri, Davit Econometrics In the face of socioeconomic challenges, this paper develops and empirically demonstrates the Gondauri Index (GI) as a reproducible diagnostics-first composite framework for benchmarking macro-financial resilience across heterogeneous economies on a unified 0-100 scale. The GI addresses a key limitation of conventional surveillance dashboards: resilience is multi-dimensional and only partially substitutable, so strength in one area cannot sustainably offset fragility in another. The index integrates three interpretable pillars: Inequality Resilience Score (IRS), Liquidity and Systemic Resilience (LNSR), and Inflation Forecast Coherence (IFC). Cross-country comparability is ensured through robust percentile normalization (p5-p95), a consistent annual country-year design, and explicit missing-data handling via component-level weight renormalization. Empirically, the paper provides a 2024 benchmark snapshot and dynamic evidence for 2005-2024 using 5-year rolling diagnostics and Delta log(GI) contribution decomposition, allowing transparent attribution of resilience changes to pillar-level drivers. A forward-looking extension constructs 2026-2030 scenario pathways and introduces a binding-pillar diagnostic that identifies the dominant constraint on resilience across horizons. Overall, the GI offers a scalable tool for comparative resilience assessment, early-warning diagnostics, and evidence-based policy sequencing. |
| title | A Diagnostics-First Composite Index for Macro-Financial Resilience to Socioeconomic Challenges: The Gondauri Index with Benchmarking and Scenario Evidence |
| topic | Econometrics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.12368 |