On causal inference with marked point process data
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arXiv
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| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2026
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| _version_ | 1866914472536309760 |
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| author | Ryalen, Pål Christie Stensrud, Mats Julius Røysland, Kjetil |
| author_facet | Ryalen, Pål Christie Stensrud, Mats Julius Røysland, Kjetil |
| contents | We define dynamic treatment regimes and associated potential outcomes for data described by marked point processes (MPPs). These definitions motivate MPP analogues of the commonly used consistency, exchangeability, and positivity conditions that are sufficient for identifying effects in MPP data structures. The conditions are formulated based on martingale theory, which allows us to derive explicit identifying assumptions for data described by stochastic processes. The definitions and conditions align with well-established discrete-time results in important special cases. Thus, this work bridges the large literatures on survival (event history) analysis with counting processes in continuous time and causal inference with variables in discrete-time. After formulating a set of identification conditions, we derive and characterize marginal g-formulas. The g-formulas are generally different from those studied in related works, though they coincide in important special cases. We relate our findings to previous work on causal inference with (counting) processes, the classical survival literature, and the discrete-time causal inference literature. |
| format | Preprint |
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arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2604_12977 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | On causal inference with marked point process data Ryalen, Pål Christie Stensrud, Mats Julius Røysland, Kjetil Methodology We define dynamic treatment regimes and associated potential outcomes for data described by marked point processes (MPPs). These definitions motivate MPP analogues of the commonly used consistency, exchangeability, and positivity conditions that are sufficient for identifying effects in MPP data structures. The conditions are formulated based on martingale theory, which allows us to derive explicit identifying assumptions for data described by stochastic processes. The definitions and conditions align with well-established discrete-time results in important special cases. Thus, this work bridges the large literatures on survival (event history) analysis with counting processes in continuous time and causal inference with variables in discrete-time. After formulating a set of identification conditions, we derive and characterize marginal g-formulas. The g-formulas are generally different from those studied in related works, though they coincide in important special cases. We relate our findings to previous work on causal inference with (counting) processes, the classical survival literature, and the discrete-time causal inference literature. |
| title | On causal inference with marked point process data |
| topic | Methodology |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.12977 |