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| Format: | Preprint |
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2026
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| Online-Zugang: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.13241 |
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| _version_ | 1866910130077958144 |
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| author | Kowalczyk, Anna Kowalski, Jakub |
| author_facet | Kowalczyk, Anna Kowalski, Jakub |
| contents | Learner satisfaction is a critical quality signal in massive open online courses (MOOCs), directly influencing retention, engagement, and platform reputation. Most existing methods infer satisfaction \emph{post hoc} from end-of-course reviews and star ratings, which are too late for effective intervention. In this paper, we study \textbf{early-warning satisfaction forecasting}: predicting a learner's eventual satisfaction score using only signals observed in the first $t$ days of a course (e.g., $t\!\in\!\{7, 14, 28\}$). We propose \textbf{TET-LLM}, a multi-modal fusion framework that combines (i) a \emph{temporal event Transformer} over fine-grained behavioral event sequences, (ii) \emph{LLM-based contextual embeddings} extracted from early textual traces such as forum posts and short feedback, and (iii) short-text \emph{topic/aspect distributions} to capture coarse satisfaction drivers. A heteroscedastic regression head outputs both a point estimate and a predictive uncertainty score, enabling conservative intervention policies. Comprehensive experiments on a large-scale multi-platform MOOC dataset demonstrate that TET-LLM consistently outperforms aggregate-feature and text-only baselines across all early-horizon settings, achieving an RMSE of 0.82 and AUC of 0.77 at the 7-day horizon. Ablation studies confirm the complementary contribution of each modality, and uncertainty calibration analysis shows near-nominal 90\% interval coverage. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2604_13241 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Early-Warning Learner Satisfaction Forecasting in MOOCs via Temporal Event Transformers and LLM Text Embeddings Kowalczyk, Anna Kowalski, Jakub Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science Learner satisfaction is a critical quality signal in massive open online courses (MOOCs), directly influencing retention, engagement, and platform reputation. Most existing methods infer satisfaction \emph{post hoc} from end-of-course reviews and star ratings, which are too late for effective intervention. In this paper, we study \textbf{early-warning satisfaction forecasting}: predicting a learner's eventual satisfaction score using only signals observed in the first $t$ days of a course (e.g., $t\!\in\!\{7, 14, 28\}$). We propose \textbf{TET-LLM}, a multi-modal fusion framework that combines (i) a \emph{temporal event Transformer} over fine-grained behavioral event sequences, (ii) \emph{LLM-based contextual embeddings} extracted from early textual traces such as forum posts and short feedback, and (iii) short-text \emph{topic/aspect distributions} to capture coarse satisfaction drivers. A heteroscedastic regression head outputs both a point estimate and a predictive uncertainty score, enabling conservative intervention policies. Comprehensive experiments on a large-scale multi-platform MOOC dataset demonstrate that TET-LLM consistently outperforms aggregate-feature and text-only baselines across all early-horizon settings, achieving an RMSE of 0.82 and AUC of 0.77 at the 7-day horizon. Ablation studies confirm the complementary contribution of each modality, and uncertainty calibration analysis shows near-nominal 90\% interval coverage. |
| title | Early-Warning Learner Satisfaction Forecasting in MOOCs via Temporal Event Transformers and LLM Text Embeddings |
| topic | Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.13241 |