A Formal Framework for Critical-Mass Collapse in Online Multiplayer Games
Fuente:
arXiv
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| Natura: | Preprint |
| Pubblicazione: |
2026
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| _version_ | 1866913033102557184 |
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| author | Sheta, Ahmed |
| author_facet | Sheta, Ahmed |
| contents | Online multiplayer games are population-dependent systems whose playability depends on the continued presence of an active player base. We propose a formal framework for reasoning about viability collapse in such systems under explicit scope conditions. The framework introduces a conditional Critical Mass Threshold $Φ$, below which queue times, match quality, or role balance render a game operationally non-viable under a fixed operational profile; an uninhabited runtime taxonomy spanning pre-launch and post-decline states; and a Nostalgia Inversion Point $ψ$, at which cultural memory exceeds active participation. We model post-peak decline using a threshold-sensitive hazard model and show how games in the modeled class can cross below viability under finite official-service horizons or bounded novelty under continuing exposure. Case studies based on public concurrent-player data are used illustratively rather than as formal validation. The contribution of the paper is not a universal law, but a formal vocabulary, a collapse model, and an empirical agenda for studying online game decline, preservation risk, and uninhabited virtual worlds. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2604_13390 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | A Formal Framework for Critical-Mass Collapse in Online Multiplayer Games Sheta, Ahmed Social and Information Networks Computer Science and Game Theory Online multiplayer games are population-dependent systems whose playability depends on the continued presence of an active player base. We propose a formal framework for reasoning about viability collapse in such systems under explicit scope conditions. The framework introduces a conditional Critical Mass Threshold $Φ$, below which queue times, match quality, or role balance render a game operationally non-viable under a fixed operational profile; an uninhabited runtime taxonomy spanning pre-launch and post-decline states; and a Nostalgia Inversion Point $ψ$, at which cultural memory exceeds active participation. We model post-peak decline using a threshold-sensitive hazard model and show how games in the modeled class can cross below viability under finite official-service horizons or bounded novelty under continuing exposure. Case studies based on public concurrent-player data are used illustratively rather than as formal validation. The contribution of the paper is not a universal law, but a formal vocabulary, a collapse model, and an empirical agenda for studying online game decline, preservation risk, and uninhabited virtual worlds. |
| title | A Formal Framework for Critical-Mass Collapse in Online Multiplayer Games |
| topic | Social and Information Networks Computer Science and Game Theory |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.13390 |