Information on hidden birth events restores identifiability in phylodynamic inference
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arXiv
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| Autores principales: | , |
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| Formato: | Preprint |
| Publicado: |
2026
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| _version_ | 1866917422101954560 |
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| author | Dieselhorst, Tobias Stadler, Tanja |
| author_facet | Dieselhorst, Tobias Stadler, Tanja |
| contents | The parameters of many classes of birth-death processes cannot be inferred uniquely from phylogenetic trees: infinitely many parameter combinations yield the same distribution of phylogenetic trees. Here, we show that parameter identifiability can be recovered even for the most general cases of time-dependent rates when additional information on hidden birth events along branches of the reconstructed tree is available. This holds both for models in which individuals are sampled at a single point in time or through time at a time-dependent rate. Moreover, we prove that when mutations occur at birth - assuming two different models for the accumulation of mutations at a birth event - then information about hidden birth events is available in the sequences and thus all parameters of time-dependent birth-death models become identifiable. Thus, phylodynamic inference is identifiable whenever evolutionary models with mutation accumulation at birth (such as at speciation, transmission, or cell division) are plausible. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2604_17926 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Information on hidden birth events restores identifiability in phylodynamic inference Dieselhorst, Tobias Stadler, Tanja Populations and Evolution The parameters of many classes of birth-death processes cannot be inferred uniquely from phylogenetic trees: infinitely many parameter combinations yield the same distribution of phylogenetic trees. Here, we show that parameter identifiability can be recovered even for the most general cases of time-dependent rates when additional information on hidden birth events along branches of the reconstructed tree is available. This holds both for models in which individuals are sampled at a single point in time or through time at a time-dependent rate. Moreover, we prove that when mutations occur at birth - assuming two different models for the accumulation of mutations at a birth event - then information about hidden birth events is available in the sequences and thus all parameters of time-dependent birth-death models become identifiable. Thus, phylodynamic inference is identifiable whenever evolutionary models with mutation accumulation at birth (such as at speciation, transmission, or cell division) are plausible. |
| title | Information on hidden birth events restores identifiability in phylodynamic inference |
| topic | Populations and Evolution |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.17926 |