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Main Authors: Elder, I. David, Moreno-Cruz, Juan, Wade, Cameron, Sleep, Sylvia, Hastings-Simon, Sara, McCoy, Sean, MacLean, Heather L., Posen, I. Daniel
Format: Preprint
Published: 2026
Subjects:
Online Access:https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.19676
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author Elder, I. David
Moreno-Cruz, Juan
Wade, Cameron
Sleep, Sylvia
Hastings-Simon, Sara
McCoy, Sean
MacLean, Heather L.
Posen, I. Daniel
author_facet Elder, I. David
Moreno-Cruz, Juan
Wade, Cameron
Sleep, Sylvia
Hastings-Simon, Sara
McCoy, Sean
MacLean, Heather L.
Posen, I. Daniel
contents Energy systems optimisation models are a leading tool for informing decisions in the energy transition. However, these models often remain opaque, and results are frequently presented without a clear discussion of their epistemic limitations. We propose Diagnostic Modelling as a framework wherein modellers critically interrogate their models and explore uncertainties to uncover mechanistic explanations that offer policy-relevant insights. Mechanistic explanations provide fundamental understanding that remains valid despite model uncertainty and does not depend on detailed knowledge of a specific model. By adopting a more open and transparent approach to engaging with energy systems models, Diagnostic Modelling encourages the participation of a broader range of decision-makers, thereby building consensus in support of the energy transition.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2604_19676
institution arXiv
publishDate 2026
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Diagnostic Modelling: a framework of principles for responsible energy systems modelling
Elder, I. David
Moreno-Cruz, Juan
Wade, Cameron
Sleep, Sylvia
Hastings-Simon, Sara
McCoy, Sean
MacLean, Heather L.
Posen, I. Daniel
Physics and Society
Energy systems optimisation models are a leading tool for informing decisions in the energy transition. However, these models often remain opaque, and results are frequently presented without a clear discussion of their epistemic limitations. We propose Diagnostic Modelling as a framework wherein modellers critically interrogate their models and explore uncertainties to uncover mechanistic explanations that offer policy-relevant insights. Mechanistic explanations provide fundamental understanding that remains valid despite model uncertainty and does not depend on detailed knowledge of a specific model. By adopting a more open and transparent approach to engaging with energy systems models, Diagnostic Modelling encourages the participation of a broader range of decision-makers, thereby building consensus in support of the energy transition.
title Diagnostic Modelling: a framework of principles for responsible energy systems modelling
topic Physics and Society
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.19676