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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2026
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.19676 |
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| _version_ | 1866911612915417088 |
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| author | Elder, I. David Moreno-Cruz, Juan Wade, Cameron Sleep, Sylvia Hastings-Simon, Sara McCoy, Sean MacLean, Heather L. Posen, I. Daniel |
| author_facet | Elder, I. David Moreno-Cruz, Juan Wade, Cameron Sleep, Sylvia Hastings-Simon, Sara McCoy, Sean MacLean, Heather L. Posen, I. Daniel |
| contents | Energy systems optimisation models are a leading tool for informing decisions in the energy transition. However, these models often remain opaque, and results are frequently presented without a clear discussion of their epistemic limitations. We propose Diagnostic Modelling as a framework wherein modellers critically interrogate their models and explore uncertainties to uncover mechanistic explanations that offer policy-relevant insights. Mechanistic explanations provide fundamental understanding that remains valid despite model uncertainty and does not depend on detailed knowledge of a specific model. By adopting a more open and transparent approach to engaging with energy systems models, Diagnostic Modelling encourages the participation of a broader range of decision-makers, thereby building consensus in support of the energy transition. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2604_19676 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Diagnostic Modelling: a framework of principles for responsible energy systems modelling Elder, I. David Moreno-Cruz, Juan Wade, Cameron Sleep, Sylvia Hastings-Simon, Sara McCoy, Sean MacLean, Heather L. Posen, I. Daniel Physics and Society Energy systems optimisation models are a leading tool for informing decisions in the energy transition. However, these models often remain opaque, and results are frequently presented without a clear discussion of their epistemic limitations. We propose Diagnostic Modelling as a framework wherein modellers critically interrogate their models and explore uncertainties to uncover mechanistic explanations that offer policy-relevant insights. Mechanistic explanations provide fundamental understanding that remains valid despite model uncertainty and does not depend on detailed knowledge of a specific model. By adopting a more open and transparent approach to engaging with energy systems models, Diagnostic Modelling encourages the participation of a broader range of decision-makers, thereby building consensus in support of the energy transition. |
| title | Diagnostic Modelling: a framework of principles for responsible energy systems modelling |
| topic | Physics and Society |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.19676 |