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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Elder, I. David, Moreno-Cruz, Juan, Wade, Cameron, Sleep, Sylvia, Hastings-Simon, Sara, McCoy, Sean, MacLean, Heather L., Posen, I. Daniel
Formato: Preprint
Publicado: 2026
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.19676
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  • Energy systems optimisation models are a leading tool for informing decisions in the energy transition. However, these models often remain opaque, and results are frequently presented without a clear discussion of their epistemic limitations. We propose Diagnostic Modelling as a framework wherein modellers critically interrogate their models and explore uncertainties to uncover mechanistic explanations that offer policy-relevant insights. Mechanistic explanations provide fundamental understanding that remains valid despite model uncertainty and does not depend on detailed knowledge of a specific model. By adopting a more open and transparent approach to engaging with energy systems models, Diagnostic Modelling encourages the participation of a broader range of decision-makers, thereby building consensus in support of the energy transition.