Efficient Multi-Cohort Inference for Long-Term Effects and Lifetime Value in A/B Testing with User Learning
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arXiv
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| Auteurs principaux: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Publié: |
2026
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| _version_ | 1866914499481567232 |
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| author | Simionato, Dario Tonon, Andrea Wang, Mingxue Wang, Weiguo Gui, Tong Li, Xiaoyue |
| author_facet | Simionato, Dario Tonon, Andrea Wang, Mingxue Wang, Weiguo Gui, Tong Li, Xiaoyue |
| contents | In streaming platforms churn is extremely costly, yet A/B tests are typically evaluated using outcomes observed within a limited experimental horizon. Even when both short- and predicted long-term engagement metrics are considered, they may fail to capture how a treatment affects users' retention. Consequently, an intervention may appear beneficial in the short term and neutral in the long term while still generating lower total value than the control due to users churn.
To address this limitation, we introduce a method that estimates long-term treatment effects (LTE) and residual lifetime value change ($ΔERLV$) in short multi-cohort A/B tests under user learning. To estimate time-varying treatment effects efficiently, we introduce an inverse-variance weighted estimator that combines multiple cohorts estimates, reducing variance relative to standard approaches in the literature. The estimated treatment trajectory is then modeled as a parametric decay to recover both the asymptotic treatment effect and the cumulative value generated over time.
Our framework enables simultaneous evaluation of steady-state impact and residual user value within a single experiment. Empirical results show improved precision in estimating LTE and $ΔERLV$ and identify scenarios in which relying on either short-term or long-term metrics alone would lead to incorrect product decisions. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2604_20777 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Efficient Multi-Cohort Inference for Long-Term Effects and Lifetime Value in A/B Testing with User Learning Simionato, Dario Tonon, Andrea Wang, Mingxue Wang, Weiguo Gui, Tong Li, Xiaoyue Machine Learning In streaming platforms churn is extremely costly, yet A/B tests are typically evaluated using outcomes observed within a limited experimental horizon. Even when both short- and predicted long-term engagement metrics are considered, they may fail to capture how a treatment affects users' retention. Consequently, an intervention may appear beneficial in the short term and neutral in the long term while still generating lower total value than the control due to users churn. To address this limitation, we introduce a method that estimates long-term treatment effects (LTE) and residual lifetime value change ($ΔERLV$) in short multi-cohort A/B tests under user learning. To estimate time-varying treatment effects efficiently, we introduce an inverse-variance weighted estimator that combines multiple cohorts estimates, reducing variance relative to standard approaches in the literature. The estimated treatment trajectory is then modeled as a parametric decay to recover both the asymptotic treatment effect and the cumulative value generated over time. Our framework enables simultaneous evaluation of steady-state impact and residual user value within a single experiment. Empirical results show improved precision in estimating LTE and $ΔERLV$ and identify scenarios in which relying on either short-term or long-term metrics alone would lead to incorrect product decisions. |
| title | Efficient Multi-Cohort Inference for Long-Term Effects and Lifetime Value in A/B Testing with User Learning |
| topic | Machine Learning |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.20777 |