Conformal prediction for uncertainties in the neutron star equation of state
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arXiv
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| Auteurs principaux: | , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Publié: |
2026
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| _version_ | 1866913056434421760 |
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| author | Dezdarani, Habib Yousefi Curry, Ryan Armstrong, Cassandra L. Gezerlis, Alexandros |
| author_facet | Dezdarani, Habib Yousefi Curry, Ryan Armstrong, Cassandra L. Gezerlis, Alexandros |
| contents | We study uncertainties in the equation of state of neutron stars using conformal prediction as a distribution-free and model-agnostic method that provides coverage guarantees. In particular, we apply the Conformalized Quantile Regression (CQR) method to posterior samples calculated from Bayesian inference, creating reliable uncertainty bands without assuming a specific form of the underlying distribution. We first construct CQR bands as a postprocessing step to the posterior samples of neutron star mas-radius relations provided by the NMMA collaboration and to Quantum Monte Carlo calculations of pure neutron matter. In all cases, empirical coverage studies confirm the robustness of the method. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2604_21039 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Conformal prediction for uncertainties in the neutron star equation of state Dezdarani, Habib Yousefi Curry, Ryan Armstrong, Cassandra L. Gezerlis, Alexandros Nuclear Theory We study uncertainties in the equation of state of neutron stars using conformal prediction as a distribution-free and model-agnostic method that provides coverage guarantees. In particular, we apply the Conformalized Quantile Regression (CQR) method to posterior samples calculated from Bayesian inference, creating reliable uncertainty bands without assuming a specific form of the underlying distribution. We first construct CQR bands as a postprocessing step to the posterior samples of neutron star mas-radius relations provided by the NMMA collaboration and to Quantum Monte Carlo calculations of pure neutron matter. In all cases, empirical coverage studies confirm the robustness of the method. |
| title | Conformal prediction for uncertainties in the neutron star equation of state |
| topic | Nuclear Theory |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.21039 |