Can QPP Choose the Right Query Variant? Evaluating Query Variant Selection for RAG Pipelines

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Main Authors: Arabzadeh, Negar, Drozdov, Andrew, Bendersky, Michael, Zaharia, Matei
Format: Preprint
Published: 2026
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author Arabzadeh, Negar
Drozdov, Andrew
Bendersky, Michael
Zaharia, Matei
author_facet Arabzadeh, Negar
Drozdov, Andrew
Bendersky, Michael
Zaharia, Matei
contents Large Language Models (LLMs) have made query reformulation ubiquitous in modern retrieval and Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) pipelines, enabling the generation of multiple semantically equivalent query variants. However, executing the full pipeline for every reformulation is computationally expensive, motivating selective execution: can we identify the best query variant before incurring downstream retrieval and generation costs? We investigate Query Performance Prediction (QPP) as a mechanism for variant selection across ad-hoc retrieval and end-to-end RAG. Unlike traditional QPP, which estimates query difficulty across topics, we study intra-topic discrimination - selecting the optimal reformulation among competing variants of the same information need. Through large-scale experiments on TREC-RAG using both sparse and dense retrievers, we evaluate pre- and post-retrieval predictors under correlation- and decision-based metrics. Our results reveal a systematic divergence between retrieval and generation objectives: variants that maximize ranking metrics such as nDCG often fail to produce the best generated answers, exposing a "utility gap" between retrieval relevance and generation fidelity. Nevertheless, QPP can reliably identify variants that improve end-to-end quality over the original query. Notably, lightweight pre-retrieval predictors frequently match or outperform more expensive post-retrieval methods, offering a latency-efficient approach to robust RAG.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2604_22661
institution arXiv
publishDate 2026
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Can QPP Choose the Right Query Variant? Evaluating Query Variant Selection for RAG Pipelines
Arabzadeh, Negar
Drozdov, Andrew
Bendersky, Michael
Zaharia, Matei
Information Retrieval
Computation and Language
Large Language Models (LLMs) have made query reformulation ubiquitous in modern retrieval and Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) pipelines, enabling the generation of multiple semantically equivalent query variants. However, executing the full pipeline for every reformulation is computationally expensive, motivating selective execution: can we identify the best query variant before incurring downstream retrieval and generation costs? We investigate Query Performance Prediction (QPP) as a mechanism for variant selection across ad-hoc retrieval and end-to-end RAG. Unlike traditional QPP, which estimates query difficulty across topics, we study intra-topic discrimination - selecting the optimal reformulation among competing variants of the same information need. Through large-scale experiments on TREC-RAG using both sparse and dense retrievers, we evaluate pre- and post-retrieval predictors under correlation- and decision-based metrics. Our results reveal a systematic divergence between retrieval and generation objectives: variants that maximize ranking metrics such as nDCG often fail to produce the best generated answers, exposing a "utility gap" between retrieval relevance and generation fidelity. Nevertheless, QPP can reliably identify variants that improve end-to-end quality over the original query. Notably, lightweight pre-retrieval predictors frequently match or outperform more expensive post-retrieval methods, offering a latency-efficient approach to robust RAG.
title Can QPP Choose the Right Query Variant? Evaluating Query Variant Selection for RAG Pipelines
topic Information Retrieval
Computation and Language
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.22661