Accelerating unrest at Campi Flegrei signals a critical transition within the next decade
Fuente:
arXiv
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2026
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1866910248010252288 |
|---|---|
| author | Zaccagnino, Davide Sornette, Didier Iaccarino, Antonio Giovanni Picozzi, Matteo |
| author_facet | Zaccagnino, Davide Sornette, Didier Iaccarino, Antonio Giovanni Picozzi, Matteo |
| contents | Campi Flegrei, a large caldera in southern Italy, is among the most hazardous volcanic systems on Earth, directly threatening over one million people. Since 2005, it has entered a phase of accelerating uplift accompanied by intensified seismicity, raising the key question of whether this evolution will culminate in eruption, a bradyseismic peak, or another regime change. Here, we show that the acceleration of seismicity and geodetic deformation is better described by a regularised finite-time singularity than by exponential growth, implying not just a better empirical representation but a different underlying process with potentially dire consequences for the system's subsequent evolution. Independent analyses converge on a critical time $t_c \approx 2030-2034$, with uplift projected to reach about 4 metres by the early 2030s. Geochemical and statistical evidence indicates that deep magmatic volatile input drives this evolution by progressively pressurising the crust. Although no evidence of imminent eruption is found, the system appears to be approaching a critical mechanical threshold whose outcome remains uncertain, requiring sustained high-resolution monitoring and continuously updated forecasts. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2604_25204 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Accelerating unrest at Campi Flegrei signals a critical transition within the next decade Zaccagnino, Davide Sornette, Didier Iaccarino, Antonio Giovanni Picozzi, Matteo Geophysics Campi Flegrei, a large caldera in southern Italy, is among the most hazardous volcanic systems on Earth, directly threatening over one million people. Since 2005, it has entered a phase of accelerating uplift accompanied by intensified seismicity, raising the key question of whether this evolution will culminate in eruption, a bradyseismic peak, or another regime change. Here, we show that the acceleration of seismicity and geodetic deformation is better described by a regularised finite-time singularity than by exponential growth, implying not just a better empirical representation but a different underlying process with potentially dire consequences for the system's subsequent evolution. Independent analyses converge on a critical time $t_c \approx 2030-2034$, with uplift projected to reach about 4 metres by the early 2030s. Geochemical and statistical evidence indicates that deep magmatic volatile input drives this evolution by progressively pressurising the crust. Although no evidence of imminent eruption is found, the system appears to be approaching a critical mechanical threshold whose outcome remains uncertain, requiring sustained high-resolution monitoring and continuously updated forecasts. |
| title | Accelerating unrest at Campi Flegrei signals a critical transition within the next decade |
| topic | Geophysics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.25204 |