The Physical Limit of Neural Hypoxia Detection in the Black Sea from Satellite Observations
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| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2026
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| _version_ | 1866918493432053760 |
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| author | Mangeleer, Victor Vandenbulcke, Luc Grégoire, Marilaure Louppe, Gilles |
| author_facet | Mangeleer, Victor Vandenbulcke, Luc Grégoire, Marilaure Louppe, Gilles |
| contents | Coastal hypoxia (O_2 < 63 [mmol / m^3]) threatens ocean health worldwide. On continental shelves, summer stratification prevents bottom oxygen consumed by respiration from being renewed, making monitoring essential to protect vulnerable ecosystems and reduce biodiversity loss. Although satellite observations are increasingly available, their potential to infer subsurface oxygen remains largely unexplored. This can be framed as a Bayesian inverse problem relating surface observations to the complete Black Sea states. Here, we solve it using a deep generative neural network trained on numerical model outputs, providing a tractable and computationally efficient approximation of the true posterior distribution of sea states. We find that accurate state estimation is limited to the mixed layer, because its homogeneity makes surface conditions representative of subsurface states. During summer, we detect 38% of all hypoxic events shelf-wide with a precision of 47%. Improving results will likely require longer assimilation windows or sub-surface observations. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2604_25608 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | The Physical Limit of Neural Hypoxia Detection in the Black Sea from Satellite Observations Mangeleer, Victor Vandenbulcke, Luc Grégoire, Marilaure Louppe, Gilles Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Coastal hypoxia (O_2 < 63 [mmol / m^3]) threatens ocean health worldwide. On continental shelves, summer stratification prevents bottom oxygen consumed by respiration from being renewed, making monitoring essential to protect vulnerable ecosystems and reduce biodiversity loss. Although satellite observations are increasingly available, their potential to infer subsurface oxygen remains largely unexplored. This can be framed as a Bayesian inverse problem relating surface observations to the complete Black Sea states. Here, we solve it using a deep generative neural network trained on numerical model outputs, providing a tractable and computationally efficient approximation of the true posterior distribution of sea states. We find that accurate state estimation is limited to the mixed layer, because its homogeneity makes surface conditions representative of subsurface states. During summer, we detect 38% of all hypoxic events shelf-wide with a precision of 47%. Improving results will likely require longer assimilation windows or sub-surface observations. |
| title | The Physical Limit of Neural Hypoxia Detection in the Black Sea from Satellite Observations |
| topic | Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.25608 |