Predicting Upcoming Stuttering Events from Three-Second Audio: Stratified Evaluation Reveals Severity-Selective Precursors, and the Model Deploys Fully On-Device
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2026
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| _version_ | 1866911634922930176 |
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| author | Kozak, Nazar |
| author_facet | Kozak, Nazar |
| contents | Audio-based stuttering systems to date have been trained for detection -- what disfluency is present now -- leaving prediction, the capability needed for closed-loop intervention, unstudied at deployable scale. We train a 616K-parameter CNN on SEP-28k (Apple, 20,131 three-second clips) to predict whether the next contiguous clip contains any disfluency.
(1) Severity-selective precursor signal: on the episode-grouped test set, aggregate preblock AUC is modest (0.581 [0.542, 0.619]), but stratifying by upcoming event type reveals concentration on clinically severe events -- blocks 0.601 [0.554, 0.651] and sound repetitions 0.617 [0.567, 0.667] both exclude chance, while fillers (0.45) and word repetitions (0.49) are at chance. The aggregate objective converges to a severity-selective predictor because severe events carry prosodic precursors; fillers do not.
(2) Cross-population transfer: without fine-tuning, the same checkpoint applied to 1,024 pediatric Children-Who-Stutter utterances (FluencyBank Teaching) attains AUC 0.674 detection and 0.655 prediction; DisfluencySpeech and LibriStutter reach 0.58-0.60 AUC.
(3) Deployable on-device: lossless export to CoreML (1.19 MB), ONNX (40 KB), TFLite. Neural-Engine latency per 3 s window: 0.25 ms (iPhone 17 Pro Max, A19 Pro) to 0.55 ms (iPhone SE 3rd-gen and M1 Max). A 4 Hz streaming simulation uses 0.54% of the real-time budget. Platt-calibrated outputs (test ECE 0.010, from 0.177 raw).
Five negative ablations -- output-level Future-Guided Learning, multi-clip GRU, time-axis concatenation, asymmetric focal loss, direct block-targeted training -- none improved over the vanilla baseline. |
| format | Preprint |
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arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2604_27279 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Predicting Upcoming Stuttering Events from Three-Second Audio: Stratified Evaluation Reveals Severity-Selective Precursors, and the Model Deploys Fully On-Device Kozak, Nazar Sound Machine Learning Audio and Speech Processing I.5.4; I.2.7 Audio-based stuttering systems to date have been trained for detection -- what disfluency is present now -- leaving prediction, the capability needed for closed-loop intervention, unstudied at deployable scale. We train a 616K-parameter CNN on SEP-28k (Apple, 20,131 three-second clips) to predict whether the next contiguous clip contains any disfluency. (1) Severity-selective precursor signal: on the episode-grouped test set, aggregate preblock AUC is modest (0.581 [0.542, 0.619]), but stratifying by upcoming event type reveals concentration on clinically severe events -- blocks 0.601 [0.554, 0.651] and sound repetitions 0.617 [0.567, 0.667] both exclude chance, while fillers (0.45) and word repetitions (0.49) are at chance. The aggregate objective converges to a severity-selective predictor because severe events carry prosodic precursors; fillers do not. (2) Cross-population transfer: without fine-tuning, the same checkpoint applied to 1,024 pediatric Children-Who-Stutter utterances (FluencyBank Teaching) attains AUC 0.674 detection and 0.655 prediction; DisfluencySpeech and LibriStutter reach 0.58-0.60 AUC. (3) Deployable on-device: lossless export to CoreML (1.19 MB), ONNX (40 KB), TFLite. Neural-Engine latency per 3 s window: 0.25 ms (iPhone 17 Pro Max, A19 Pro) to 0.55 ms (iPhone SE 3rd-gen and M1 Max). A 4 Hz streaming simulation uses 0.54% of the real-time budget. Platt-calibrated outputs (test ECE 0.010, from 0.177 raw). Five negative ablations -- output-level Future-Guided Learning, multi-clip GRU, time-axis concatenation, asymmetric focal loss, direct block-targeted training -- none improved over the vanilla baseline. |
| title | Predicting Upcoming Stuttering Events from Three-Second Audio: Stratified Evaluation Reveals Severity-Selective Precursors, and the Model Deploys Fully On-Device |
| topic | Sound Machine Learning Audio and Speech Processing I.5.4; I.2.7 |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.27279 |