Empirical Evaluation of Deadline-Resolved Information Leakage on Documented Polymarket Insider Cases
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arXiv
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| Natura: | Preprint |
| Pubblicazione: |
2026
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| _version_ | 1866909040901095424 |
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| author | Nechepurenko, Maksym |
| author_facet | Nechepurenko, Maksym |
| contents | This paper reports an end-to-end empirical evaluation of the deadline-Information Leakage Score (ILS-dl) extension introduced in the companion methodology paper. The deadline-ILS extends the original ILS to deadline-resolved prediction-market contracts, the dominant structural form of publicly documented insider trading on Polymarket. We anchor the evaluation in the 2026 U.S.-Iran conflict cluster of the ForesightFlow Insider Cases (FFIC) inventory, the largest documented deadline cluster. The evaluation has four parts: per-category exponential-hazard estimation, a single-case ILS-dl computation, cross-market wallet analysis, and methodological refinements.
Hazard-rate estimation produces an adequate exponential fit for military-geopolitics markets (KS p = 0.426, half-life 2.9 days, n = 18) and a preliminary fit for corporate-disclosure markets (n = 5). The regulatory-decision category is rejected as bimodal (p = 0.023). On the largest applicable FFIC contract ("US forces enter Iran by April 30," $269M volume), the article-derived public-event timestamp yields ILS-dl = +0.113 versus a resolution-anchored proxy value of -0.331: a 0.444 shift in magnitude on opposite sides of zero, demonstrating that the extension distinguishes signal from proxy artefact. Pre-event drift is mild, and short-window variants (30-min, 2-hour) are exactly zero. Cross-market wallet analysis identifies 332 wallets active in both major Iran-cluster markets, but the available trade history covers only the resolution-settlement window.
v2 (May 2026) corrects the hazard fit to the full Tier-3 population; the v1 estimate lies inside the v2 95% CI. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2605_02286 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Empirical Evaluation of Deadline-Resolved Information Leakage on Documented Polymarket Insider Cases Nechepurenko, Maksym Trading and Market Microstructure General Finance This paper reports an end-to-end empirical evaluation of the deadline-Information Leakage Score (ILS-dl) extension introduced in the companion methodology paper. The deadline-ILS extends the original ILS to deadline-resolved prediction-market contracts, the dominant structural form of publicly documented insider trading on Polymarket. We anchor the evaluation in the 2026 U.S.-Iran conflict cluster of the ForesightFlow Insider Cases (FFIC) inventory, the largest documented deadline cluster. The evaluation has four parts: per-category exponential-hazard estimation, a single-case ILS-dl computation, cross-market wallet analysis, and methodological refinements. Hazard-rate estimation produces an adequate exponential fit for military-geopolitics markets (KS p = 0.426, half-life 2.9 days, n = 18) and a preliminary fit for corporate-disclosure markets (n = 5). The regulatory-decision category is rejected as bimodal (p = 0.023). On the largest applicable FFIC contract ("US forces enter Iran by April 30," $269M volume), the article-derived public-event timestamp yields ILS-dl = +0.113 versus a resolution-anchored proxy value of -0.331: a 0.444 shift in magnitude on opposite sides of zero, demonstrating that the extension distinguishes signal from proxy artefact. Pre-event drift is mild, and short-window variants (30-min, 2-hour) are exactly zero. Cross-market wallet analysis identifies 332 wallets active in both major Iran-cluster markets, but the available trade history covers only the resolution-settlement window. v2 (May 2026) corrects the hazard fit to the full Tier-3 population; the v1 estimate lies inside the v2 95% CI. |
| title | Empirical Evaluation of Deadline-Resolved Information Leakage on Documented Polymarket Insider Cases |
| topic | Trading and Market Microstructure General Finance |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.02286 |