Local Truncation Error-Guided Neural ODEs for Large Scale Traffic Forecasting
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arXiv
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| Autores principales: | , , , , , |
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| Formato: | Preprint |
| Publicado: |
2026
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| _version_ | 1866911647043420160 |
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| author | Zhang, Xiao Li, Yafei Wang, Ruixiang Wei, Wei He, Shuo Xu, Mingliang |
| author_facet | Zhang, Xiao Li, Yafei Wang, Ruixiang Wei, Wei He, Shuo Xu, Mingliang |
| contents | Spatiotemporal forecasting in physical systems, such as large-scale traffic networks, requires modeling a dual dynamic: continuous macroscopic rhythms and discrete, unpredictable microscopic shocks. While Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) excel at capturing smooth evolution, their inherent Lipschitz continuity constraints inevitably cause severe over-smoothing when confronting abrupt anomalies. Recent physics-informed methods attempt to bypass this by penalizing numerical integration errors to enforce manifold smoothness. However, we mathematically reveal that such rigid regularization inherently triggers gradient conflicts and ``attention collapse,'' stripping the model of its sensitivity to anomalies. To resolve this continuity-shock dilemma, we propose Local Truncation Error-Guided Neural ODEs (LTE-ODE). Rather than treating numerical error as a nuisance to be eliminated, we innovatively repurpose the Local Truncation Error (LTE) as an unsupervised forward inductive bias. By mapping the LTE into a dynamic spatial attention mask, our architecture gracefully preserves high-precision continuous ODE evolution in stable regions, while adaptively triggering a discrete compensation branch exclusively at shock points. Trained purely end-to-end without manifold penalties, LTE-ODE achieves state-of-the-art performance on multiple large-scale benchmarks, exhibiting exceptional robustness against highly non-linear fluctuations. Furthermore, our ablation on integration steps demonstrates high deployment flexibility, allowing the model to seamlessly adapt to varying hardware memory constraints in real-world applications. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2605_03386 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Local Truncation Error-Guided Neural ODEs for Large Scale Traffic Forecasting Zhang, Xiao Li, Yafei Wang, Ruixiang Wei, Wei He, Shuo Xu, Mingliang Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence Spatiotemporal forecasting in physical systems, such as large-scale traffic networks, requires modeling a dual dynamic: continuous macroscopic rhythms and discrete, unpredictable microscopic shocks. While Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) excel at capturing smooth evolution, their inherent Lipschitz continuity constraints inevitably cause severe over-smoothing when confronting abrupt anomalies. Recent physics-informed methods attempt to bypass this by penalizing numerical integration errors to enforce manifold smoothness. However, we mathematically reveal that such rigid regularization inherently triggers gradient conflicts and ``attention collapse,'' stripping the model of its sensitivity to anomalies. To resolve this continuity-shock dilemma, we propose Local Truncation Error-Guided Neural ODEs (LTE-ODE). Rather than treating numerical error as a nuisance to be eliminated, we innovatively repurpose the Local Truncation Error (LTE) as an unsupervised forward inductive bias. By mapping the LTE into a dynamic spatial attention mask, our architecture gracefully preserves high-precision continuous ODE evolution in stable regions, while adaptively triggering a discrete compensation branch exclusively at shock points. Trained purely end-to-end without manifold penalties, LTE-ODE achieves state-of-the-art performance on multiple large-scale benchmarks, exhibiting exceptional robustness against highly non-linear fluctuations. Furthermore, our ablation on integration steps demonstrates high deployment flexibility, allowing the model to seamlessly adapt to varying hardware memory constraints in real-world applications. |
| title | Local Truncation Error-Guided Neural ODEs for Large Scale Traffic Forecasting |
| topic | Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.03386 |