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| Hauptverfasser: | , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Veröffentlicht: |
2026
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| Online-Zugang: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.06419 |
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| _version_ | 1866909022419943424 |
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| author | de Lima, Alexandre Barbosa Raggi, Roberta Vieira |
| author_facet | de Lima, Alexandre Barbosa Raggi, Roberta Vieira |
| contents | Accurate terminal-voltage prediction underpins model-based battery management, yet low-order equivalent-circuit models (\ecm{}) lack expressiveness under transient conditions, whereas purely data-driven predictors sacrifice interpretability and may degrade under operating-condition shift. This paper introduces a residual-corrected hybrid formulation in which a first-order Thevenin \ecm{} (\ecmrc{}) provides the dominant voltage structure, and a compact neural network embedded as a universal differential equation (\ude{}) corrects only the latent polarization mismatch. The \ecmrc{} parameters identified by nonlinear least squares warm-start the hybrid model so that the learned component operates in a low-residual regime. Experiments on a public Panasonic 18650PF dataset compare the proposed \ecmude{} with standalone \ecmrc{} and Long Short-Term Memory (\lstm{}) baselines across four axes: matched-condition prediction on UDDS at \SI{25}{\celsius}, inference-time perturbation of the supplied state-of-charge (\SOC{}, denoted $z$) input, zero-shot temperature transfer (\SI{25}{\celsius} to \SI{-20}{\celsius}), and zero-shot drive-cycle transfer to US06, LA92, and HWFET. The proposed \ecmude{} achieves the lowest voltage error in every setting, reducing mean absolute error (\mae{}) by 48\% relative to the \lstm{} under matched conditions and showing an order-of-magnitude lower inter-seed variability (coefficient of variation: 0.44\% vs.\ 6.20\%). Substantial gains persist under challenging distribution shifts, indicating that the physical model anchors prediction where a purely learned model is most vulnerable. These results position residual-corrected \ecmude{} as a lightweight and interpretable enhancement of low-order circuit models for voltage prediction in battery management systems (\bms{}). |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2605_06419 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Residual-Corrected Equivalent-Circuit Model with Universal Differential Equations for Robust Battery Voltage Prediction under Operating-Condition Shift de Lima, Alexandre Barbosa Raggi, Roberta Vieira Systems and Control Accurate terminal-voltage prediction underpins model-based battery management, yet low-order equivalent-circuit models (\ecm{}) lack expressiveness under transient conditions, whereas purely data-driven predictors sacrifice interpretability and may degrade under operating-condition shift. This paper introduces a residual-corrected hybrid formulation in which a first-order Thevenin \ecm{} (\ecmrc{}) provides the dominant voltage structure, and a compact neural network embedded as a universal differential equation (\ude{}) corrects only the latent polarization mismatch. The \ecmrc{} parameters identified by nonlinear least squares warm-start the hybrid model so that the learned component operates in a low-residual regime. Experiments on a public Panasonic 18650PF dataset compare the proposed \ecmude{} with standalone \ecmrc{} and Long Short-Term Memory (\lstm{}) baselines across four axes: matched-condition prediction on UDDS at \SI{25}{\celsius}, inference-time perturbation of the supplied state-of-charge (\SOC{}, denoted $z$) input, zero-shot temperature transfer (\SI{25}{\celsius} to \SI{-20}{\celsius}), and zero-shot drive-cycle transfer to US06, LA92, and HWFET. The proposed \ecmude{} achieves the lowest voltage error in every setting, reducing mean absolute error (\mae{}) by 48\% relative to the \lstm{} under matched conditions and showing an order-of-magnitude lower inter-seed variability (coefficient of variation: 0.44\% vs.\ 6.20\%). Substantial gains persist under challenging distribution shifts, indicating that the physical model anchors prediction where a purely learned model is most vulnerable. These results position residual-corrected \ecmude{} as a lightweight and interpretable enhancement of low-order circuit models for voltage prediction in battery management systems (\bms{}). |
| title | Residual-Corrected Equivalent-Circuit Model with Universal Differential Equations for Robust Battery Voltage Prediction under Operating-Condition Shift |
| topic | Systems and Control |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.06419 |