Modeling Dynamic Correlation Matrices with Shrinkage Priors
Fuente:
arXiv
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2026
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1866914540688506880 |
|---|---|
| author | Coulson, Daniel Andrew Matteson, David S. Wells, Martin T. |
| author_facet | Coulson, Daniel Andrew Matteson, David S. Wells, Martin T. |
| contents | Estimating time-varying correlation matrices is challenging because existing methods may adapt slowly to structural changes, impose insufficient regularization, or produce diffuse posterior uncertainty. In moderate dimensions, an additional difficulty is summarizing the estimated evolving dependence structure for downstream decision-making tasks. We propose a Bayesian approach based on a low-rank factor representation, with latent states evolving under a dynamic shrinkage prior and observation errors following a multivariate factor stochastic volatility model. This specification allows locally adaptive regularization of the estimated correlation structure over time and informative uncertainty quantification. We establish, to our knowledge, a first-of-its-kind posterior contraction result for dynamically regularized Bayesian models, showing contraction around the true model parameters at an explicit rate under averaged Hellinger distance. To summarize the estimated correlation matrices, we build on the information-theoretic concept of total correlation to obtain a scalar measure of cross-sectional dependence. Simulation studies show improved accuracy and responsiveness relative to competing methods in a range of challenging scenarios. We then apply our method to monitoring the correlation evolution of equity portfolios during periods of financial market stress, providing an ex post framework for assessing the changing benefits of diversification in backtesting analyses. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2605_06818 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Modeling Dynamic Correlation Matrices with Shrinkage Priors Coulson, Daniel Andrew Matteson, David S. Wells, Martin T. Methodology Statistical Finance Estimating time-varying correlation matrices is challenging because existing methods may adapt slowly to structural changes, impose insufficient regularization, or produce diffuse posterior uncertainty. In moderate dimensions, an additional difficulty is summarizing the estimated evolving dependence structure for downstream decision-making tasks. We propose a Bayesian approach based on a low-rank factor representation, with latent states evolving under a dynamic shrinkage prior and observation errors following a multivariate factor stochastic volatility model. This specification allows locally adaptive regularization of the estimated correlation structure over time and informative uncertainty quantification. We establish, to our knowledge, a first-of-its-kind posterior contraction result for dynamically regularized Bayesian models, showing contraction around the true model parameters at an explicit rate under averaged Hellinger distance. To summarize the estimated correlation matrices, we build on the information-theoretic concept of total correlation to obtain a scalar measure of cross-sectional dependence. Simulation studies show improved accuracy and responsiveness relative to competing methods in a range of challenging scenarios. We then apply our method to monitoring the correlation evolution of equity portfolios during periods of financial market stress, providing an ex post framework for assessing the changing benefits of diversification in backtesting analyses. |
| title | Modeling Dynamic Correlation Matrices with Shrinkage Priors |
| topic | Methodology Statistical Finance |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.06818 |