HBEE: Human Behavioral Entropy Engine -- Pre-Registered Multi-Agent LLM Simulation of Peer-Suspicion-Based Detection Inversion
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arXiv
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| Formato: | Preprint |
| Publicado: |
2026
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| _version_ | 1866909025888632832 |
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| author | Ferrel, Vickson |
| author_facet | Ferrel, Vickson |
| contents | Insider threat detection assumes that an adaptive insider leaves behavioral residue distinguishing them from legitimate users. We test this assumption against an LLM-driven adaptive insider in a controlled multi-agent simulator. Our pre-registered five-condition study isolates defender mode (cascade vs. blind UEBA) crossed with adversary type (naive vs. adaptive OPSEC) plus a no-mole control, across 100 runs (95 valid after pre-committed exclusions). The primary finding is a detection inversion: at T_60, the adaptive mole's suspicion in-degree is statistically lower than a randomly selected innocent agent (Cliff's delta = -0.694, 95% BCa CI [-0.855, -0.519], Mann-Whitney p << 0.01). The pre-registered prediction was the opposite direction. A pre-registered equivalence test (H2) shows adaptive OPSEC produces no detectable shift in the mole's UEBA rank under either defender mode. The two detection signals (peer suspicion graph in-degree and per-agent UEBA rank) decouple under adaptive adversary behavior. We bound generalization explicitly: a pre-registered Gini calibration check (H4) returns FAIL, with HBEE pairwise message-exposure Gini (0.213) diverging from the SNAP Enron reference (0.730) by |Delta Gini| = 0.52, exceeding the equivalence bound by 5x. The paper makes a narrow but surprising claim: in a controlled environment where adaptive OPSEC is implementable as an LLM directive, peer-suspicion-cascade detection inverts. We release the simulator, pre-registration document, frozen scenarios, raw telemetry, and analysis pipeline under an open-source license. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2605_07472 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | HBEE: Human Behavioral Entropy Engine -- Pre-Registered Multi-Agent LLM Simulation of Peer-Suspicion-Based Detection Inversion Ferrel, Vickson Cryptography and Security Artificial Intelligence Multiagent Systems K.6.5; I.2.11; D.4.6 Insider threat detection assumes that an adaptive insider leaves behavioral residue distinguishing them from legitimate users. We test this assumption against an LLM-driven adaptive insider in a controlled multi-agent simulator. Our pre-registered five-condition study isolates defender mode (cascade vs. blind UEBA) crossed with adversary type (naive vs. adaptive OPSEC) plus a no-mole control, across 100 runs (95 valid after pre-committed exclusions). The primary finding is a detection inversion: at T_60, the adaptive mole's suspicion in-degree is statistically lower than a randomly selected innocent agent (Cliff's delta = -0.694, 95% BCa CI [-0.855, -0.519], Mann-Whitney p << 0.01). The pre-registered prediction was the opposite direction. A pre-registered equivalence test (H2) shows adaptive OPSEC produces no detectable shift in the mole's UEBA rank under either defender mode. The two detection signals (peer suspicion graph in-degree and per-agent UEBA rank) decouple under adaptive adversary behavior. We bound generalization explicitly: a pre-registered Gini calibration check (H4) returns FAIL, with HBEE pairwise message-exposure Gini (0.213) diverging from the SNAP Enron reference (0.730) by |Delta Gini| = 0.52, exceeding the equivalence bound by 5x. The paper makes a narrow but surprising claim: in a controlled environment where adaptive OPSEC is implementable as an LLM directive, peer-suspicion-cascade detection inverts. We release the simulator, pre-registration document, frozen scenarios, raw telemetry, and analysis pipeline under an open-source license. |
| title | HBEE: Human Behavioral Entropy Engine -- Pre-Registered Multi-Agent LLM Simulation of Peer-Suspicion-Based Detection Inversion |
| topic | Cryptography and Security Artificial Intelligence Multiagent Systems K.6.5; I.2.11; D.4.6 |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.07472 |