Future Validity is the Missing Statistic: From Impossibility to $Φ$-Estimation for Grammar-Faithful Speculative Decoding

Fuente: arXiv
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Main Authors: Nie, Wenhua, Meng, Zijie, Zou, Kun, Lin, Zheng, Li, Ziwei, Zheng, Haoran, Jang, Jyh-Shing Roger, Zhang, Hao
Format: Preprint
Published: 2026
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author Nie, Wenhua
Meng, Zijie
Zou, Kun
Lin, Zheng
Li, Ziwei
Zheng, Haoran
Jang, Jyh-Shing Roger
Zhang, Hao
author_facet Nie, Wenhua
Meng, Zijie
Zou, Kun
Lin, Zheng
Li, Ziwei
Zheng, Haoran
Jang, Jyh-Shing Roger
Zhang, Hao
contents Grammar-constrained generation is often combined with local vocabulary masking and speculative decoding, but the resulting sampling law is not the grammar-conditional distribution users usually intend. We show that any speculative decoder with local mask access, Leviathan rejection, and rollback soundness samples from the locally projected distribution $μ^{\mathrm{proj}}$ rather than the grammar-conditional distribution $μ^\star$. This extends the GAD impossibility result to speculative decoding; on Dyck grammars with Qwen3-8B, the total-variation gap can reach 0.996. We identify the future-validity function $Φ_t(y)=\Pr_p[\mathrm{valid\ completion}\mid y]$ as the missing correction statistic. The target distribution is a Doob transform of the base model with $h=Φ$, while local masking corresponds to setting $h$ to one. With exact $Φ$, our oracle decoder FVO-Spec samples exactly from $μ^\star$; with approximate $Φ$, we bound the resulting total-variation error. Because exact future validity is hard for general context-free grammars, we evaluate estimator hierarchies on tractable Dyck and finite JSON languages. OneStep reduces Dyck TV by 14% with under 1% throughput overhead, exact dynamic programming reduces it by 97%, and finite-language correction closes JSON gaps to numerical precision. All fidelity claims are scoped to enumerable grammars and token tries.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2605_07698
institution arXiv
publishDate 2026
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Future Validity is the Missing Statistic: From Impossibility to $Φ$-Estimation for Grammar-Faithful Speculative Decoding
Nie, Wenhua
Meng, Zijie
Zou, Kun
Lin, Zheng
Li, Ziwei
Zheng, Haoran
Jang, Jyh-Shing Roger
Zhang, Hao
Machine Learning
Information Theory
Grammar-constrained generation is often combined with local vocabulary masking and speculative decoding, but the resulting sampling law is not the grammar-conditional distribution users usually intend. We show that any speculative decoder with local mask access, Leviathan rejection, and rollback soundness samples from the locally projected distribution $μ^{\mathrm{proj}}$ rather than the grammar-conditional distribution $μ^\star$. This extends the GAD impossibility result to speculative decoding; on Dyck grammars with Qwen3-8B, the total-variation gap can reach 0.996. We identify the future-validity function $Φ_t(y)=\Pr_p[\mathrm{valid\ completion}\mid y]$ as the missing correction statistic. The target distribution is a Doob transform of the base model with $h=Φ$, while local masking corresponds to setting $h$ to one. With exact $Φ$, our oracle decoder FVO-Spec samples exactly from $μ^\star$; with approximate $Φ$, we bound the resulting total-variation error. Because exact future validity is hard for general context-free grammars, we evaluate estimator hierarchies on tractable Dyck and finite JSON languages. OneStep reduces Dyck TV by 14% with under 1% throughput overhead, exact dynamic programming reduces it by 97%, and finite-language correction closes JSON gaps to numerical precision. All fidelity claims are scoped to enumerable grammars and token tries.
title Future Validity is the Missing Statistic: From Impossibility to $Φ$-Estimation for Grammar-Faithful Speculative Decoding
topic Machine Learning
Information Theory
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.07698