Do Foundation Model Embeddings Improve Cross-Country Crop Yield Generalisation? A Leave-One-Country-Out Evaluation in Sub-Saharan Africa
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arXiv
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2026
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| _version_ | 1866915994885160960 |
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| author | Adjei, Yaw Osei |
| author_facet | Adjei, Yaw Osei |
| contents | Accurate predictions of smallholder maize yields across national boundaries are critical for food security planning in sub-Saharan Africa, yet most published benchmarks report within-country performance that overstates true generalisability. This paper evaluates whether geospatial foundation model embeddings, specifically Prithvi-EO-1.0-100M and ViT-Base, outperform traditional Sentinel-2 spectral features under a Leave-One-Country-Out cross-validation scheme on 6,404 maize field observations from five African countries. The results show a clear generalisability gap: within-country random cross-validation yields moderate R^2 values, but all feature sets perform poorly under cross-country testing, with universally negative R^2. Frozen Prithvi-EO embeddings provide no meaningful advantage over engineered spectral features for cross-country prediction in this setting. The paper argues that the main limitation is a shift in yield distribution between countries rather than representation quality and releases a reproducible negative benchmark for future work. |
| format | Preprint |
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arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2605_08113 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Do Foundation Model Embeddings Improve Cross-Country Crop Yield Generalisation? A Leave-One-Country-Out Evaluation in Sub-Saharan Africa Adjei, Yaw Osei Machine Learning Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition I.2.6 Accurate predictions of smallholder maize yields across national boundaries are critical for food security planning in sub-Saharan Africa, yet most published benchmarks report within-country performance that overstates true generalisability. This paper evaluates whether geospatial foundation model embeddings, specifically Prithvi-EO-1.0-100M and ViT-Base, outperform traditional Sentinel-2 spectral features under a Leave-One-Country-Out cross-validation scheme on 6,404 maize field observations from five African countries. The results show a clear generalisability gap: within-country random cross-validation yields moderate R^2 values, but all feature sets perform poorly under cross-country testing, with universally negative R^2. Frozen Prithvi-EO embeddings provide no meaningful advantage over engineered spectral features for cross-country prediction in this setting. The paper argues that the main limitation is a shift in yield distribution between countries rather than representation quality and releases a reproducible negative benchmark for future work. |
| title | Do Foundation Model Embeddings Improve Cross-Country Crop Yield Generalisation? A Leave-One-Country-Out Evaluation in Sub-Saharan Africa |
| topic | Machine Learning Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition I.2.6 |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.08113 |