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| Hauptverfasser: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Veröffentlicht: |
2026
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| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12200 |
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| _version_ | 1866914559540854784 |
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| author | Berthelier, Gaspard Baranova, Mariia Pantea, Andrei-Tiberiu Naour, Etienne Le Petralia, Adrien Nabil, Tahar Palpanas, Themis |
| author_facet | Berthelier, Gaspard Baranova, Mariia Pantea, Andrei-Tiberiu Naour, Etienne Le Petralia, Adrien Nabil, Tahar Palpanas, Themis |
| contents | Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance, often outperforming supervised models in zero-shot settings. Recent TSFM architectures, such as Chronos-2 and TabPFN-TS, aim to integrate covariates. In this paper, we design controlled experiments based on simple target-covariate relationships to assess this integration capability. Our results show that TabPFN-TS captures these relationships more effectively than Chronos-2, especially for short horizons, suggesting that the strong benchmark performance of Chronos-2 does not automatically translate into optimal modeling of simple covariate-target dependencies. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2605_12200 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Investigating simple target-covariate relationships for Chronos-2 and TabPFN-TS Berthelier, Gaspard Baranova, Mariia Pantea, Andrei-Tiberiu Naour, Etienne Le Petralia, Adrien Nabil, Tahar Palpanas, Themis Machine Learning Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance, often outperforming supervised models in zero-shot settings. Recent TSFM architectures, such as Chronos-2 and TabPFN-TS, aim to integrate covariates. In this paper, we design controlled experiments based on simple target-covariate relationships to assess this integration capability. Our results show that TabPFN-TS captures these relationships more effectively than Chronos-2, especially for short horizons, suggesting that the strong benchmark performance of Chronos-2 does not automatically translate into optimal modeling of simple covariate-target dependencies. |
| title | Investigating simple target-covariate relationships for Chronos-2 and TabPFN-TS |
| topic | Machine Learning |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12200 |