State-resolved multimodal contributions to stratospheric polar vortex predictability
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arXiv
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2026
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| _version_ | 1866910216221622272 |
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| author | Yang, Shuo Zhao, Dan Xue, Tingting Zeng, Chunhua Zhang, Yongwen Chen, Xiaosong |
| author_facet | Yang, Shuo Zhao, Dan Xue, Tingting Zeng, Chunhua Zhang, Yongwen Chen, Xiaosong |
| contents | The dynamical basis of stratospheric polar vortex predictability remains unclear, particularly the relative roles of persistence, structural variability, and cross-level coupling. Here we provide a state-resolved and quantitative framework using eigen microstate theory applied to ERA5 geopotential height fields, enabling attribution of predictability to dynamically coherent circulation states via a mesoscopic Granger-causality approach. We show that short-term predictability is dominated by persistence of the leading stratospheric state, whereas extended predictability arises from higher-order stratospheric structures and tropospheric variability. These contributions exhibit strong lead-time dependence and become more distributed during sudden stratospheric warming events. Our results unify SPV predictability within a multimodal, state-resolved framework and provide a physically interpretable pathway for improving subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2605_13417 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | State-resolved multimodal contributions to stratospheric polar vortex predictability Yang, Shuo Zhao, Dan Xue, Tingting Zeng, Chunhua Zhang, Yongwen Chen, Xiaosong Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics The dynamical basis of stratospheric polar vortex predictability remains unclear, particularly the relative roles of persistence, structural variability, and cross-level coupling. Here we provide a state-resolved and quantitative framework using eigen microstate theory applied to ERA5 geopotential height fields, enabling attribution of predictability to dynamically coherent circulation states via a mesoscopic Granger-causality approach. We show that short-term predictability is dominated by persistence of the leading stratospheric state, whereas extended predictability arises from higher-order stratospheric structures and tropospheric variability. These contributions exhibit strong lead-time dependence and become more distributed during sudden stratospheric warming events. Our results unify SPV predictability within a multimodal, state-resolved framework and provide a physically interpretable pathway for improving subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts. |
| title | State-resolved multimodal contributions to stratospheric polar vortex predictability |
| topic | Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.13417 |