Optimising football transfer strategy under budget constraints: A weighted multi-criteria approach
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arXiv
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| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2026
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| _version_ | 1866918500665131008 |
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| author | Basu, Tathagata Deb, Soudeep Roy, Rishideep |
| author_facet | Basu, Tathagata Deb, Soudeep Roy, Rishideep |
| contents | The football transfer market is a complex, dynamic environment in which clubs compete to acquire players who strengthen their squads. While several frameworks estimate a player's worth, a comprehensive approach that captures both squad optimisation and transfer market dynamics remains limited. In this paper, we propose a quantitative framework for optimising football transfer strategy under budget constraints, integrated with a competitive bidding paradigm. Using data from professional football leagues, we construct player performance and transfer price models using linear mixed-effects frameworks that incorporate player characteristics, recent performance, team context, and league effects. The predicted ratings and estimated transfer prices are then integrated into a weighted multi-criteria constrained optimisation framework that determines a club's transfer activities at the end of the season. Finally, these optimal transfer decisions are embedded within an independent private-value auction model with a random reserve price to analyse market behaviour when multiple teams compete for the same player. We illustrate our approach using the 2018-19 season of the English Premier League to demonstrate its ability to capture transfer-market dynamics. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2605_13926 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Optimising football transfer strategy under budget constraints: A weighted multi-criteria approach Basu, Tathagata Deb, Soudeep Roy, Rishideep Applications The football transfer market is a complex, dynamic environment in which clubs compete to acquire players who strengthen their squads. While several frameworks estimate a player's worth, a comprehensive approach that captures both squad optimisation and transfer market dynamics remains limited. In this paper, we propose a quantitative framework for optimising football transfer strategy under budget constraints, integrated with a competitive bidding paradigm. Using data from professional football leagues, we construct player performance and transfer price models using linear mixed-effects frameworks that incorporate player characteristics, recent performance, team context, and league effects. The predicted ratings and estimated transfer prices are then integrated into a weighted multi-criteria constrained optimisation framework that determines a club's transfer activities at the end of the season. Finally, these optimal transfer decisions are embedded within an independent private-value auction model with a random reserve price to analyse market behaviour when multiple teams compete for the same player. We illustrate our approach using the 2018-19 season of the English Premier League to demonstrate its ability to capture transfer-market dynamics. |
| title | Optimising football transfer strategy under budget constraints: A weighted multi-criteria approach |
| topic | Applications |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.13926 |