Reducing Credit Assignment Variance via Counterfactual Reasoning Paths

Fuente: arXiv
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Autores principales: Ding, Fei, Zhang, Yongkang, Wang, Youwei, Zeng, Zijian
Formato: Preprint
Publicado: 2026
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author Ding, Fei
Zhang, Yongkang
Wang, Youwei
Zeng, Zijian
author_facet Ding, Fei
Zhang, Yongkang
Wang, Youwei
Zeng, Zijian
contents Reinforcement learning for multi-step reasoning with large language models (LLMs) typically relies on sparse terminal rewards, which creates a poorly conditioned credit-assignment problem: the final feedback is propagated uniformly across all intermediate decisions. This leads to high gradient variance, unstable training, and many ineffective updates, ultimately limiting sustained model improvement. We propose a counterfactual-comparison framework for credit assignment. For each input, the framework samples multiple reasoning trajectories and treats their differences as implicit approximations to alternative decisions. This yields an implicit process-level advantage estimator that converts sparse terminal rewards into step-sensitive learning signals. Building on this framework, we introduce Implicit Behavior Policy Optimization (IBPO), which substantially improves training stability and the performance ceiling on mathematical and code-reasoning benchmarks. Our results point to a promising direction for unlocking the reasoning potential of LLMs.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2605_16302
institution arXiv
publishDate 2026
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Reducing Credit Assignment Variance via Counterfactual Reasoning Paths
Ding, Fei
Zhang, Yongkang
Wang, Youwei
Zeng, Zijian
Machine Learning
Artificial Intelligence
Computation and Language
Reinforcement learning for multi-step reasoning with large language models (LLMs) typically relies on sparse terminal rewards, which creates a poorly conditioned credit-assignment problem: the final feedback is propagated uniformly across all intermediate decisions. This leads to high gradient variance, unstable training, and many ineffective updates, ultimately limiting sustained model improvement. We propose a counterfactual-comparison framework for credit assignment. For each input, the framework samples multiple reasoning trajectories and treats their differences as implicit approximations to alternative decisions. This yields an implicit process-level advantage estimator that converts sparse terminal rewards into step-sensitive learning signals. Building on this framework, we introduce Implicit Behavior Policy Optimization (IBPO), which substantially improves training stability and the performance ceiling on mathematical and code-reasoning benchmarks. Our results point to a promising direction for unlocking the reasoning potential of LLMs.
title Reducing Credit Assignment Variance via Counterfactual Reasoning Paths
topic Machine Learning
Artificial Intelligence
Computation and Language
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.16302