Nested Spatio-Temporal Time Series Forecasting
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arXiv
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| Auteurs principaux: | , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Publié: |
2026
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| _version_ | 1866916027354316800 |
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| author | Ai, Yinghao Zhou, Yukai Jiang, Ruoxi An, Junyi Qu, Chao Zhou, Zhijian Wang, Shiyu Cao, Fenglei Xu, Zenglin Shen, Furao Qi, Yuan |
| author_facet | Ai, Yinghao Zhou, Yukai Jiang, Ruoxi An, Junyi Qu, Chao Zhou, Zhijian Wang, Shiyu Cao, Fenglei Xu, Zenglin Shen, Furao Qi, Yuan |
| contents | Spatiotemporal forecasting is critical for real-world applications like traffic management, yet capturing reliable interactions remains challenging under noisy and non-stationary conditions. Existing methods primarily rely on historical spatial priors, often failing to account for evolving temporal correlations and suffering from systematic errors. In this work, we propose a nested forecasting framework that couples future macro-level regional trends with micro-level historical observations, enabling top-down guidance from abstract future representations for fine-grained forecasting. Specifically, we employ a spectral clustering-based approach to construct semantically coherent regions, providing both theoretical and empirical evidence that this representation effectively filters systematic noise while preserving essential trends. Building on this, we develop a progressive coarse-to-fine predictor to integrate these representative features into the inference process. This enables the model to leverage trend predictions to anticipate dynamic anomalies, such as periodic offsets, in advance. Furthermore, extensive experiments on multiple high-dimensional datasets demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, validating the effectiveness of future macro-guided nested forecasting. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2605_16447 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Nested Spatio-Temporal Time Series Forecasting Ai, Yinghao Zhou, Yukai Jiang, Ruoxi An, Junyi Qu, Chao Zhou, Zhijian Wang, Shiyu Cao, Fenglei Xu, Zenglin Shen, Furao Qi, Yuan Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence Spatiotemporal forecasting is critical for real-world applications like traffic management, yet capturing reliable interactions remains challenging under noisy and non-stationary conditions. Existing methods primarily rely on historical spatial priors, often failing to account for evolving temporal correlations and suffering from systematic errors. In this work, we propose a nested forecasting framework that couples future macro-level regional trends with micro-level historical observations, enabling top-down guidance from abstract future representations for fine-grained forecasting. Specifically, we employ a spectral clustering-based approach to construct semantically coherent regions, providing both theoretical and empirical evidence that this representation effectively filters systematic noise while preserving essential trends. Building on this, we develop a progressive coarse-to-fine predictor to integrate these representative features into the inference process. This enables the model to leverage trend predictions to anticipate dynamic anomalies, such as periodic offsets, in advance. Furthermore, extensive experiments on multiple high-dimensional datasets demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, validating the effectiveness of future macro-guided nested forecasting. |
| title | Nested Spatio-Temporal Time Series Forecasting |
| topic | Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.16447 |