Crime hotspot dynamics in residential burglary models with police response
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2026
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| author | Hao, Baoli Mily, Kamrun Quaini, Annalisa Zhong, Ming |
| author_facet | Hao, Baoli Mily, Kamrun Quaini, Annalisa Zhong, Ming |
| contents | We develop and analyze mathematical models for residential burglary that incorporates police deployment through a delayed feedback mechanism. Motivated by empirical observations from publicly available crime and policing data, we extend a well-known agent-based model by introducing a dynamic police response driven by crime information that becomes available only after a finite delay. Taking the mean-field limit, we derive a coupled continuum system consisting of three partial differential equations and one ordinary differential equation describing the interactions among criminal density, environmental attractiveness, delayed crime signal, and police deployment. Linear stability analysis of homogeneous steady states reveals that response delays can destabilize otherwise stable equilibria through Hopf bifurcations. As a result, the model predicts sustained temporal oscillations and dynamically evolving crime hotspots. Numerical simulations of both the agent-based and continuum models confirm the theoretical analysis and uncover rich spatio-temporal behaviors, including moving, splitting, and merging hotspots. Through a parametric study, we investigate the roles of police density, crime information delay, and neighborhood effects in controlling stability, hotspot size, and oscillatory behavior. Our results indicate that timely access to crime data plays a more important role than police density in stabilizing crime levels. |
| format | Preprint |
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arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2605_17709 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Crime hotspot dynamics in residential burglary models with police response Hao, Baoli Mily, Kamrun Quaini, Annalisa Zhong, Ming Dynamical Systems Numerical Analysis We develop and analyze mathematical models for residential burglary that incorporates police deployment through a delayed feedback mechanism. Motivated by empirical observations from publicly available crime and policing data, we extend a well-known agent-based model by introducing a dynamic police response driven by crime information that becomes available only after a finite delay. Taking the mean-field limit, we derive a coupled continuum system consisting of three partial differential equations and one ordinary differential equation describing the interactions among criminal density, environmental attractiveness, delayed crime signal, and police deployment. Linear stability analysis of homogeneous steady states reveals that response delays can destabilize otherwise stable equilibria through Hopf bifurcations. As a result, the model predicts sustained temporal oscillations and dynamically evolving crime hotspots. Numerical simulations of both the agent-based and continuum models confirm the theoretical analysis and uncover rich spatio-temporal behaviors, including moving, splitting, and merging hotspots. Through a parametric study, we investigate the roles of police density, crime information delay, and neighborhood effects in controlling stability, hotspot size, and oscillatory behavior. Our results indicate that timely access to crime data plays a more important role than police density in stabilizing crime levels. |
| title | Crime hotspot dynamics in residential burglary models with police response |
| topic | Dynamical Systems Numerical Analysis |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.17709 |