Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Wang, Haochun, Yang, Chaofen, Liu, Jiatong, Wang, Jingbo, Qiang, Zewen, Zhao, Sendong, Qin, Bing, Liu, Ting
Format: Preprint
Published: 2026
Subjects:
Online Access:https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.18512
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1866917508206821376
author Wang, Haochun
Yang, Chaofen
Liu, Jiatong
Wang, Jingbo
Qiang, Zewen
Zhao, Sendong
Qin, Bing
Liu, Ting
author_facet Wang, Haochun
Yang, Chaofen
Liu, Jiatong
Wang, Jingbo
Qiang, Zewen
Zhao, Sendong
Qin, Bing
Liu, Ting
contents In-context learning (ICL) is highly sensitive to which demonstrations appear in the prompt, but selecting them is expensive because the space of possible demonstration contexts and combinations is enormous. We argue that demonstration selection is \emph{easier to judge than to find}: predicting whether a specific query--context pair $(q,D)$ will succeed is cheaper and more general than searching for an optimal $D^\star$. Based on this insight, we propose DiSP, a sample-and-judge framework that stratifies queries by difficulty. DiSP runs random demonstration trials to estimate success rate of each training query, trains a lightweight router to predict difficulty from the query, and trains level-specific judges for sampled demonstrations. At inference, DiSP performs stop-on-acceptance judging under an explicit budget, emitting diagnostic risk tags when no suitable context is found. Across five classification datasets with Llama~3--8B and Qwen~2.5--7B, DiSP achieves the best average accuracy, improving over strong learned selection baselines by up to 3.4\%, while achieving up to $23\times$ end-to-end wall-clock speedup.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2605_18512
institution arXiv
publishDate 2026
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Easier to Judge than to Find: Predicting In-Context Learning Success for Demonstration Selection
Wang, Haochun
Yang, Chaofen
Liu, Jiatong
Wang, Jingbo
Qiang, Zewen
Zhao, Sendong
Qin, Bing
Liu, Ting
Computation and Language
In-context learning (ICL) is highly sensitive to which demonstrations appear in the prompt, but selecting them is expensive because the space of possible demonstration contexts and combinations is enormous. We argue that demonstration selection is \emph{easier to judge than to find}: predicting whether a specific query--context pair $(q,D)$ will succeed is cheaper and more general than searching for an optimal $D^\star$. Based on this insight, we propose DiSP, a sample-and-judge framework that stratifies queries by difficulty. DiSP runs random demonstration trials to estimate success rate of each training query, trains a lightweight router to predict difficulty from the query, and trains level-specific judges for sampled demonstrations. At inference, DiSP performs stop-on-acceptance judging under an explicit budget, emitting diagnostic risk tags when no suitable context is found. Across five classification datasets with Llama~3--8B and Qwen~2.5--7B, DiSP achieves the best average accuracy, improving over strong learned selection baselines by up to 3.4\%, while achieving up to $23\times$ end-to-end wall-clock speedup.
title Easier to Judge than to Find: Predicting In-Context Learning Success for Demonstration Selection
topic Computation and Language
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.18512