The Statistical Significance of the Inclusion of Graph Neural Networks in the Financial Time Series Forecasting Problem

Fuente: arXiv
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Hauptverfasser: Gregnanin, Marco, De Smedt, Johannes, Gnecco, Giorgio, Parton, Maurizio
Format: Preprint
Veröffentlicht: 2026
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author Gregnanin, Marco
De Smedt, Johannes
Gnecco, Giorgio
Parton, Maurizio
author_facet Gregnanin, Marco
De Smedt, Johannes
Gnecco, Giorgio
Parton, Maurizio
contents Forecasting univariate time series in the financial market is a challenging endeavor. While numerous statistical and machine learning models have been introduced to address this challenge, they typically concentrate solely on analyzing temporal patterns within the time series data. In this research, we study the statistical significance of the inclusion of geometric patterns in enhancing forecasting accuracy within the context of time series analysis. We introduce the Time-Geometric model, a combination of models designed to exploit both geometric and temporal patterns. The contribution of this research lies in advancing the domain of univariate time series prediction,as demonstrated through extensive empirical evaluations. Our findings underscore that leveraging geometric patterns, captured through Graph Neural Networks, yields statistically significant improvements in forecasting accuracy.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2605_21192
institution arXiv
publishDate 2026
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle The Statistical Significance of the Inclusion of Graph Neural Networks in the Financial Time Series Forecasting Problem
Gregnanin, Marco
De Smedt, Johannes
Gnecco, Giorgio
Parton, Maurizio
Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science
Computational Finance
Forecasting univariate time series in the financial market is a challenging endeavor. While numerous statistical and machine learning models have been introduced to address this challenge, they typically concentrate solely on analyzing temporal patterns within the time series data. In this research, we study the statistical significance of the inclusion of geometric patterns in enhancing forecasting accuracy within the context of time series analysis. We introduce the Time-Geometric model, a combination of models designed to exploit both geometric and temporal patterns. The contribution of this research lies in advancing the domain of univariate time series prediction,as demonstrated through extensive empirical evaluations. Our findings underscore that leveraging geometric patterns, captured through Graph Neural Networks, yields statistically significant improvements in forecasting accuracy.
title The Statistical Significance of the Inclusion of Graph Neural Networks in the Financial Time Series Forecasting Problem
topic Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science
Computational Finance
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.21192