On the Statistical Interpretation of Discoveries in LHC Data
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arXiv
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| Auteurs principaux: | , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Publié: |
2026
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| _version_ | 1866910251012325376 |
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| author | Chekanov, S. V. Weik, E. J. |
| author_facet | Chekanov, S. V. Weik, E. J. |
| contents | We examine discovery criteria at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) within a model-independent framework, with particular emphasis on the statistical signatures of new physics. This study is motivated by the recent shift from model-specific searches based on a small number of distributions to broad, model-agnostic strategies, which offer substantially greater sensitivity to unexpected phenomena. We revisit the well-known criterion of a local statistical significance of $5\,σ$ for the observation of new phenomena in invariant-mass distributions and discuss how this threshold should be modified to account for look-elsewhere effects arising not only from multiple bins within a given distribution, but also from the simultaneous consideration of multiple distributions. We present a simple but statistically conservative relation between local and global significances in the presence of multiple invariant-mass distributions at the LHC, which can serve as a useful first approximation for planning future measurements. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2605_24441 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | On the Statistical Interpretation of Discoveries in LHC Data Chekanov, S. V. Weik, E. J. Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability High Energy Physics - Experiment High Energy Physics - Phenomenology We examine discovery criteria at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) within a model-independent framework, with particular emphasis on the statistical signatures of new physics. This study is motivated by the recent shift from model-specific searches based on a small number of distributions to broad, model-agnostic strategies, which offer substantially greater sensitivity to unexpected phenomena. We revisit the well-known criterion of a local statistical significance of $5\,σ$ for the observation of new phenomena in invariant-mass distributions and discuss how this threshold should be modified to account for look-elsewhere effects arising not only from multiple bins within a given distribution, but also from the simultaneous consideration of multiple distributions. We present a simple but statistically conservative relation between local and global significances in the presence of multiple invariant-mass distributions at the LHC, which can serve as a useful first approximation for planning future measurements. |
| title | On the Statistical Interpretation of Discoveries in LHC Data |
| topic | Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability High Energy Physics - Experiment High Energy Physics - Phenomenology |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.24441 |