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| Format: | Preprint |
| Veröffentlicht: |
2026
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| Online-Zugang: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.26143 |
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| _version_ | 1866910256901128192 |
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| author | Omelchenko, Alexander |
| author_facet | Omelchenko, Alexander |
| contents | When does a crisis-induced surge in radical-party support fade away, and when does it become a durable realignment? We address this in a mathematical sociology threshold model on a conserved population. The baseline admits a global classification through a Perron--Frobenius threshold. Adding a crisis-induced disengagement compartment, we separate state shocks (which alter the current state) from structural shocks (which alter parameters). State shocks affect transients but cannot move the long-run attractor; durable realignment requires structural threshold-crossing. We derive a critical shock amplitude and a finite mobilisation-window bound, and show that cumulative structural shifts can produce staircase realignment. A stylised illustration uses German federal elections, 2013--2025. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2605_26143 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Crisis, Disengagement, and Structural Realignment: A Threshold Model of Radical-Party Support Omelchenko, Alexander Physics and Society Dynamical Systems When does a crisis-induced surge in radical-party support fade away, and when does it become a durable realignment? We address this in a mathematical sociology threshold model on a conserved population. The baseline admits a global classification through a Perron--Frobenius threshold. Adding a crisis-induced disengagement compartment, we separate state shocks (which alter the current state) from structural shocks (which alter parameters). State shocks affect transients but cannot move the long-run attractor; durable realignment requires structural threshold-crossing. We derive a critical shock amplitude and a finite mobilisation-window bound, and show that cumulative structural shifts can produce staircase realignment. A stylised illustration uses German federal elections, 2013--2025. |
| title | Crisis, Disengagement, and Structural Realignment: A Threshold Model of Radical-Party Support |
| topic | Physics and Society Dynamical Systems |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.26143 |