RCSP: Risk-Sensitive Conjectural Scenario Planning for Safe Dynamic Robot Navigation

Fuente: arXiv
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Auteurs principaux: Han, Zhengye, Zhu, Quanyan
Format: Preprint
Publié: 2026
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author Han, Zhengye
Zhu, Quanyan
author_facet Han, Zhengye
Zhu, Quanyan
contents Mobile robots can fail before they collide: a velocity that is safe now may commit the robot to a passage that moving obstacles will soon close. We study this predictive near-miss commitment problem and propose Risk-Sensitive Conjectural Scenario Planning (RCSP), a planning layer that evaluates candidate commands against plausible short-horizon obstacle futures. RCSP maintains a lightweight belief over local motion conjectures, samples future interactions, penalizes high-risk tails, and executes through a local safety check. In controlled MuJoCo bottleneck tasks, the RCSP planner reaches the goal without collisions and yields higher secondary safety and path-quality point estimates than a non-adaptive predictor, with additional latency. In ROS2/Gazebo, adding the local safety layer to a standard Nav2 stack reduces dynamic near-miss failures. On official DynaBARN/Jackal transfer, tuned DWA and TEB remain stronger on strict benchmark success, revealing the boundary of the approach. These simulation results position RCSP as a predictive-risk module that complements existing navigation stacks in dynamic bottleneck regimes.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2605_26348
institution arXiv
publishDate 2026
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle RCSP: Risk-Sensitive Conjectural Scenario Planning for Safe Dynamic Robot Navigation
Han, Zhengye
Zhu, Quanyan
Robotics
Mobile robots can fail before they collide: a velocity that is safe now may commit the robot to a passage that moving obstacles will soon close. We study this predictive near-miss commitment problem and propose Risk-Sensitive Conjectural Scenario Planning (RCSP), a planning layer that evaluates candidate commands against plausible short-horizon obstacle futures. RCSP maintains a lightweight belief over local motion conjectures, samples future interactions, penalizes high-risk tails, and executes through a local safety check. In controlled MuJoCo bottleneck tasks, the RCSP planner reaches the goal without collisions and yields higher secondary safety and path-quality point estimates than a non-adaptive predictor, with additional latency. In ROS2/Gazebo, adding the local safety layer to a standard Nav2 stack reduces dynamic near-miss failures. On official DynaBARN/Jackal transfer, tuned DWA and TEB remain stronger on strict benchmark success, revealing the boundary of the approach. These simulation results position RCSP as a predictive-risk module that complements existing navigation stacks in dynamic bottleneck regimes.
title RCSP: Risk-Sensitive Conjectural Scenario Planning for Safe Dynamic Robot Navigation
topic Robotics
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.26348